If I bet everything but a missed flush, the one problem is that I’m giving away that I have top pair if I bet when no flush card came. This is okay to do at first because people probably won’t figure it out right away since it looks like a bluff. This method is preferred in position if you bet the flop then check the turn. That way it looks like you semi-bluffed or just bought a free card, missed your flush and followed up with a bluff.
Then if you think people have you figured out, the way to switch it is to
What you should really be doing is mixing up this sort of thing in all aspects of your game. You want to be able to represent at LEAST another hand at ALL TIMES. Just like in a previous example I gave, if you only play from early position with aces, you can play suited connectors as well to add some value and represent a different hand than you have.
You always here the pros talk about how they knew another pro had either nothing at all or a monster… I believe the pros do this sort of thing all the time whether they have consciously given a lot of thought to it or not. I know that Dan Harrington will raise from 1st position with suited connectors every once and awhile to mix things up.
AVOIDING TILT
This might seem shocking to you, but I believe it is possible to completely conquer tilt. Now of course tilt is sort of on a spectrum, you can get tired and make minor mistakes and not really be “on tilt” but your quality of play is reduced, and if it continues, you will get frustrated and unless you do something, you eventually will go on full blown tilt. I believe you can catch it the moment you feel a little tired, or get a little bit upset at a bad beat.
Now, everyone occasionally gets tired and makes a move that they normally wouldn’t at sometime… So lets say for whatever reason you think you can outplay a guy and you bet on the flop, check on the turn, and then you decide to take one last stab at it and bet with some marginal hand on the river that you shouldn’t even be in with in the first place. Now he reraises and you call out of frustration. The cards are flipped over and he shows top pair, crushing the pair of 6s that you caught on the river. Perhaps later you put a short stack all in, or you call all in and you’re dominated. Perhaps you have JJ and you flop JKK and you try to slow play it and you check on the flop and turn and the river are both Kings and suddenly you can’t even beat the board and can only hope your opponent doesn’t have a Q or an Ace and the best you can do is a split!
What do you tell yourself when these things happen? Do you say, “ARGH! I’m so stupid!”, then pull the hair out of your head? Do you look for excuses of why you didn’t win more or lose less, or why you let the guy catch that card on you? I used to think like that, but guess what, no amount of ridiculing yourself or anyone else can make you a better player… No one in the world can make themselves frustrated enough to make things magically better. So rather than say to yourself “I’m so stupid” why not ask yourself a question that can get your mind immediately focused back on the game and playing good. Some people may ask a question like “Why does this always happen to me?” or “Why didn’t I win?” But while these are momentarily helpful, there is a better question to ask. Its questions like “How can I use this situation to make me better”, or “what can I learn from this situation”, “How can I make myself more disciplined?” It’s these sorts of questions that not only get your focus back on the game, but also will make you a better player in the long run. All of these questions are constructive; they will cause your brain to seek to IMPROVE your game, and STAY FOCUSED on the game. If you’re constantly asking yourself helpful constructive questions, it’s very difficult to go on tilt. If you just made a bad play, and you’re thinking what players think of you at this point, and how you can exploit that; If you ask yourself questions like “how can I use this to my advantage”, your focus is on useful information such as players perception of you at this point, and how you should change your game. These are just a few of many things that most people will instantly ignore at this point. And the first sign of tilt is when you start ignoring critical information such as what people think of you. As your emotions distract you from necessary information, your judgments then get affected, and as a result you play worse. And the longer you go without calming yourself down and getting a grip on these things, the worse you will play and the close you will get until you just go on tilt.
If you are asking yourself these questions, and you still go on tilt, you need to learn to make a habit of SLOWING DOWN… you have plenty of time before every move, use it. The most useful thing you can do before every hand is to THINK. If you still are going on tilt, you have bigger problems. It all boils down to self-mastery and self-control. And I’m not saying that to criticize you, I’m saying that because you need to understand that while it may not be your fault that you lost a given hand, you are 100% responsible for it. What I mean by that just because it isn’t your fault doesn’t mean you couldn’t avoid it. It doesn’t mean you won’t be able to learn something from it and not let it reoccur. If someone saw a car coming at them and they got hit, it might not be their fault, but that doesn’t mean if they were paying attention that they couldn’t avoid it. So are you mad that the event happened? Or are you mad at yourself that you were unable to adapt? Because see we only learn to feel bad in these kinds of situations, and it’s ridiculous, but see, we always do the best with the resources that we as humans have and those that we have learned how to use. But the more you think about it, the more you’ll find that there are MORE resources, and that you can really learn just how your unconscious mind can use your emotions to cause you to take action. It’s not causing you to feel bad because you’re seeking to hurt yourself, it’s because you’re seeking change. And if you make learning how to avoid losing those pots important enough, and if you make winning important enough, eventually if you ignore it long enough your emotions will get so strong that it will FORCE you to make a change to prevent that sort of thing from happening.
Guess what? You are completely in control of your attitude, your thoughts, your movements, and your actions. So maybe someone makes a horrible call without the odds to make the call, and catches the cards to beat you. First of all you want people making bad plays on you. You should be encouraging that type of play. Second of all if you believe you did absolutely everything right, why would you be upset?
So don’t go all Phil Helmuth on me because you making the right move didn’t work out. If it was meant to be a lesson to you rather then a chance to win so you could feel good, you better learn that lesson! Phil Ivey doesn’t get upset, he doesn’t talk a whole lot at the table, he doesn’t write books or talk on radio shows very much… He’s too busy WINNING! If only you could combine Phil Helmuth’s abilities with Phil Ivey’s winning attitude and focus.
The moment you shift your understanding to realize that you are responsible for your own action, the more you’ll understand that you are not angry at anyone else other than yourself. And the biggest thing you can realize is that our emotions are made to SERVE a PURPOSE… That Purpose is to HELP us; to GUIDE us. Everyone seeks to seek out pleasure and avoid pain, our emotions assist us to make the changes we need to in order to get back on track. Even the emotions that we consider negative are nothing more than a signal telling us that we need to take some sort of action. And the longer we delay that action that we need to take, the stronger the emotion gets. It’s not a coincidence that when our life is out of sync we don’t feel the way we want to. As I have said, emotion is usually telling us that we need to change in some way. And usually change either our procedure or our perception. The stronger the emotion gets, the more urgent it is that we make that change. So if you’re getting angry too often perhaps there’s some belief you’re holding onto that you need to change. It’s time to just let go of your ego and stop trying to control everything all the time. Don’t worry, you are not alone. Everyone gets upset about something. I used to feel like throwing the computer out the window at times, and I felt a lot of other so-called “negative” emotions. But they inspired me to find the path to a better life, as I learned so many of life’s valuable lessons. If I write another eBook in the future, it will be some sort of self-help book so I can share all of the valuable knowledge that I’ve learned.
…But back to staying in control of yourself. One thing that’s really helped me is to ask myself some questions. To try to connect and speak with the part of me that’s upset. I would ask myself questions like “why am I so angry?” I might answer with “because this guy just made a bad play and I did the right move and still lost” I would then respond with another question “Well, why does that bother me?” usually at this point the anger will fade away and I will answer with “Exactly, it shouldn’t, there’s no reason for me to let it, I’m better than that”. Now maybe it will keep going and instead I will answer, “because I deserved to win that hand and I didn’t” and then “what can I do to win next time?” “Nothing, I played the hand perfectly” Then “What are some positive things I can realize or understand to calm me down?” and then I’d start thinking of “Well, in the long run I’ll make money off of that play, I’m only upset because the money meant something to me” If I’m still upset, I’ll ask myself, “what do I need to change?” Because if I believe I played the hand perfectly and I’m still upset, that means it’s not the procedure that I need to change, but the perception. And if it’s the perception perhaps I’m believing that I played the hand perfect when I didn’t really, or perhaps I need to start looking at loosing pots as valuable lessons. Or maybe it IS my procedure and I need to lower the stakes so that the money doesn’t mean as much to me, or find some place or stakes to play at where people don’t make those kinds of plays.
This goes back to the picking on the tight players, and waiting for the loose players.
1 Spend a lot of time making a good title. (list all the benefits that your eBook has. List as many benefits that you’re offering, pick 1 or 2 that are the most powerful and turn it into your title. Benefits should appeal to emotion and desire.
The “How to title” How to make your golf game everything you ever wanted
“10 ways to” “20 secrets for”
2 Write as if you are speaking to ONE person Pretend you’re talking to your friend and teaching him how. Say you rather than I and me.
3 Use Short paragraphs, 1, 2, 3 try no more than 4 sentences, simple language.
4 Feel free to make specific examples and tell stories.
5 Use your eBook to drive traffic back to your site, promote your backend, and to sell your affiliate programs.
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Another reason why all in is something you want to avoid. People often say “you should take any situation where you are EV+ (in other words, when your move has a positive expected value. This is not true in anything other than cashgames. Sure there are situations where it is true, but those are few. Here’s the reasoning. Imagine as tournament where EVERYONE had a table that went all in every hand and a person that called. Aside from ties, the tournament field would cut in half every single hand.. If this were the case, it would be INSANELY foolish to risk it all assuming there are enough chips in relationship to the blinds that you are able to survive. You probably won’t be able to win this type of tournament, but that’s not what’s important, what’s important is the overall money value, not the overall chip value. In a field of 5000, you’d have 5000 players, than 2500 then 1250 then 625, 313, 156, 78, 39, 19, 10, 5, 3 2,1…
If you could survive 12 hands, you’d win the 2nd place cash. Your opponents do all the work.. You see, in tournaments, folding may have 1/10thof the blinds in the middle negative expected value chipwize, but in terms of money, you gain $ev when you aren’t even in a hand, or even things happening at other tables. You see, taking every single edge assumes that your opponents play optimal. This is hardly EVER the case. The worse the field takes –EV situations andmore risks, the more you should wait and fold +EV chpiwize ESPECIALLY if all your chips are at risk. In this style of tournament, one person will get lucky and win. Of course you will get second 99.9% of the time if you fold every hand. Even if you double up, your chances of winning aren’t that great anyways. It’s not going to make sense to risk all your chips because maybe you get 80% vs 20%, but 20% of the time you don’t even get 2nd, and 80% of the time you might have more chips, but you’ll still be outchipped 3000 to one once you get headsup for all your chips. So maybe your chances of winning “double” (although I am unsure about this, but even if they do, we’re talking your chance of winning the entire thing going from .1% to .2%, and your chance of taking 2nd going from 100% down to 20%, and every 80% risk you take it goes down again. True, if you only got money for 1st and nothing for second this might be the optimal strategy to take every +EV you can, but this is not the case. Now I’m not saying you want to be giving up small edges all the time, but in terms of risk management, you should be willing to give quite a bit ogf small edges up that force you all in, and the worse the field you’re up against is, the more of an edge you can give up. ..
But let’s give another situation. Lets say opponents are SO bad that they limp in, check to the river and go all in regardless of their hand. . Lets say the blind structure allows your chipstack to be so deep that the blinds start out so low that you have 1000 times the big blind, and they only go up by 1 chip every hour. Obviously you would do NOTHING other than klimp every hand and wait for the nuts. IF you could expect this play to continue, even if you go into the final table outchipped like crazy, and go headsup outchipped like crazy, you would win the tournament with this strategy. Ok, so obviously this is not the case, how often are you going to be able to limp and fold every hand until you have the nuts, and still manage to double up with the nuts. NOT OFTEN if EVER. HOWEVER, by employing a strategy that allows you to play LOTs of small pots, and take advantage of your opponents play by either keeping the pot small to the river when you think your hand is good increase the size of the pot to the degree that your hand is good, and if you think your opponent uis likely to have nothing place the smallest bet you can that will get him to fold, unless he’s drawing dead, or to runner runner or you have a monster. If this were the case and you could do this and have a slight advantage in the long run on every hand and never have to risk all your chips, you COULD only risk your chips with the nuts and win AS LONG AS you were able to gain at LEAST 1 big blind one small blind, and antes per every rotation without putting a significant amount of your chips at risk.. There certainly is a slight flaw with this line of thinking though, that is that making one big blind+smallblind+ante(or M) isn’t something that can ALWAYS be done with no risk. The large fieds will allow you to do this for awhile, but the blinds will catch up with your chipstack, and people will start to play aggressively. Let’s say BEFORE this point happens, people play extremely tight passive, and AFTTER this point happens people play extremely tight aggressive. What kind of advantage would it be to make sure you
A) fold long enough to the point where you could survive to the tight passive stage.
B) Accumulate enough chips at that point so you could either have enough chips to be able to fold until the point where you can steal a bunch of hands or have enough chips where you can afford to call the shortstacks all in without risking much of your stack.
C) Make it to the point where the blinds are big and you can steal with minraises (and if not bet a third of the pot on the flop and if not get away from the hand) with enough chips to be able to have enough chips to survive the times that people move in on you enough to get away from and still have enough to go back to stealing so long as you still on average accumulate 1 BB per round or more.
D) Only have to risk all of YOUR stack when there’s 2 tables left, but still have to move all in at this point, however since the blinds and ante’s are so good and you get a double up+ your blinds and antes+whoever limped in, a blindsteal(if not called) is WAY more valuable (as is chip position over others), and even if you were able to maintain your chips and nothing more to this point, you need lless “double ups” since you get a doubleup PLUS the blinds and antes. However, almost ALWAYS if you make it this far, with or without being all in, you will have MORE chips than you had before so every double up means WAY more than it did in the beginning
E) Have to survive 4 coinflips at the final table(with you having a slight advantage) to be able to be in a headsup position to win, but if you DON’T survive those 4 coinflips, you still cash in top 10 money, and if you surivvve the first 1 but no others you’re top 5, and if you surive the first 3 you’re top 3 money and if you survive the 4th you’re headsup, basically even in chips, and if you’re the better headsup player, lets say you have a 55% chance to win.
In a field of 5000 players, how much of an advantage would this player have over a person who does an “all in or fold style, shoving in anytime he has +EV (IF CALLED)the following.
A) wins a double up as a 60/40 favorite
B) wins another double up as a 80/20 favorite
C) blinds down but then wins the blinds to put him at about where he was.
D) Wins another double up as a 80/20 favorite
E) Blinds down for awhile
F) Doubles up as a 60/40
G) Sits tight on the bubble to make the money.
H) Is forced to go all in after the bubble but everyone else is MUCH more willing to call and seems to blind down and blind down and has to push in a lot or blind down to half his stack before doubling up with the best hand, or call off his chips hopeing he’s at least a coinflip.
I) Goes all in early in the final table
J) Sits way back as he gets blinded WAY down 5 handed
K) Folds his way to 3rd place and has to win 3 more double ups before he’s heads up
To Simplify things, lets assume that the 2nd player is able to MAINTAIN chips… and lets assume that EVERY single time he gets it all in as a 80% favorite. This is a radical assumption in itself if they play with that kind of style… But How many doubleups are needed in a 5000 person tournament? Well if you start at 1500 in chips, 1500 times 5000 is 7.5million. It would take 12.5 doubleups!
So basically you would have to surive 13 all ins to win the entire thing. What are your chances of doing so? As an 80% favorite you would have to take .8*.8 (13 times). You would have a 4% chance of winning. What about someone who does the first strategy as only a 55% favorite? They not only have a better chance of winning (at 5.%), but they have a MUCH MUCH better chance of not only gaining experience, and learning how to increase their future ROI, but they also will make the money MUCH more, and they will finish 2nd, and 3rd and 4th and 5th a LOT more… YOU tell ME which one’s more valuable.
Some might think that this is improbable, or impossible.. One of them is MUCH more possible than the other, and that’s the 2nd method. The reason being, with THAT sort of strategy, you will hardly EVER be BOTH able to get your money inm as a 80% favorite AND still be able to maintain chips between double ups…. HOWEVER, if you play like the FIRST method, you will. The first method IS VERY doable. In fact, you’re more likely to be able to get a more deadly combination of accumulating chips, and finsing a spot where you have a set up against a pair and you are 90+% to double up, or you hit a flush on the river and you are 100% to double up against your opponents set. Or you flop a straight against an overpair. And if you can find the tight opponents late in tourneys, you can often steal and steal again. You can make a move while the other players sit back when it’s short handed during the final 3, 2, and final table. You literally can play a style where you get a small amount into the pot, and keep the pots small and either chop away at them, or play them to the river without getting too much chips in (without a big hand) and you can continue to win small pots, OR you can find a table that will fold a LOT of bets on the flop, and a LOT preflop, and you can just steal them blind. You can virtually play a strategy that makes you INVINCABLE early on, with NO chance of busting out. Then once you have chips the doubleup means that much more. What if instead of the player in the all in 13 times example was only 70%/30% still a very difficult feat? You’d have a 1.8% of winning it all. Now what if the player with the all instrategy had their chips decay by 10% before every doubleup as a 80% favorite? Well now they’d need 15 double ups to win. So they’d have a 2.8% chance of winning as a 80/20% favorite everytime, and a 1% chance of winning as a 70/30% fav everytime.
But realistically the decay is MUCH greater as the tourney goes on. The player that plays that style will not only need significantly more doubleups, but he will also be forced to get in MUCH less profitable situations late in the tournament, taking coinflips at around the sametime the player with the smallpot style will have to as well.
And this IS realistic. You KNOW without a reasonable doubt that players will play TIGHT on the money, allowing you to accumulate chips like crazy. You KNOW that without a reasonable doubt that AFTER the money people will finally go all in very often and unless you’re ready to risk your chips, you’re going to have to sitback, and you KNOW that after you survive that part, without a reasonable doubt people will play tightaggressive in the sense that they will play a “pushfold” type of mode (some will be looser than others, but for the most part you will be able to bet 2.5X the BB and take it down1/4 of the time, and 1/3rd of the time that you just get called you will be able to take it down on the flop. And I KNOW without a reasonable doubt that it is possible to avoid all ins and still accumulate chips and put yourself in a position to win tournaments. Playing this style allows you a VERY good chance in surviving supersatellites . I’ve often calculated my chances of qualifying given the hands I’ve been all in with, and it’s usually as high as in the 30% range in fields of 4500 when you need to place top 30 to win.
Now you WILL get set at tables where they’re loose aggressive, and you really can’t do much other than either wait for a hand, or if you have enough chips and good implied odds to call with a few speculative hands (suited connectors, small paris and suited gap connectors) and try to flop the nuts. But for the most part, your chips WILL dwindle, but it’s okay, if you can survive to the bubble, depending on the players, you should be able to accumulate a LOT of chips here and put yourself in a position where you can WAIT for a hand while everyone else goes crazy, and survive to the point where you can make some steals.
EVEN IF you CAN get your money in as an 80% favorite consistently, and EVEN IF you decide for whatever reason that this method is better, you need a way to be able to maintain your chips until that point, and in most tables, small pot poker, is the way to do that. Scotty Nguyen is sone of the most consistant players out there. And he finished 9th in the most recent main event. How? By never being all in without the nuts, and rarely ever calling someone else’s all in without being a significant stack, compared to them AND having the best hand like top set (against a straightflushdraw at best)
Phil Helmuth is a player that ALSO is consitantly at final tables… Guess what, he plays small pot poker at certain stages of tournaments as well. He ALSO makes some of the biggest and best laydowns. He probably is even better than someone with style1 because at the final table even he can win without being allin, however he struggles when he’s at the table late in tournaments with Hoyt Corkins and Mike Matusow style players that at this stage force opponents all in and play big pots. But Mike Matusow is actually one of the players that also is known to do a lot of trapping and playing small pots as well, although he switches it up and makes great reads and relies heavily on them and makes BIG moves when he has a read. He will eat a tight table ALIVE, and often have people move all in on him or call his all in on the flop when he has top set and they have a pair. Mike is a combination of both styles, he will fold a 60/40, however he might push a 40/60, but he’ll also push in with the nuts and as a 60/40 and with aces preflop so opponents can’t really call him out because they’ll often be wrong if they do. When it comes to being the aggresser, Mike might take unnecessary risks by overbetting the pot HUGE moving all in on a flushdraw with MAYBE an overcard if it’s good, but this will often set his opponents up and allow himself to gt paidoff BIG. His strategy isoften very inconsistent, but very powerful as well. As you may know, Mike Matusow plays soley to win, andI agree that if you need to win, you should play similar to the way he does.
But for the most part, you can take 85% of his game, and forget the part about shoving in with some of the hands he does, and avoid those risks, and you will probably have a better chance than anyone other than maybe Helmuth to survive and end up going deep.
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People pass up FAR too many edges without realizing it, and they take WAY too many “edges” when they really aren’t. This is most true with novices. There are two types of novice players that pass up edges and turn their edges into small ones. There is the tight player that folds too many hands, and the loose player that plays too many. Playing too loose isn’t bad as itself, at least preflop… But novices don’t know when there hand is good and they are either too tight or too loose on the flop. (oor too aggressive against the wrong players or too passive against the wrong players.
Here’s some examples.
If a tight player thinks there is ANY chance (or at least a very good chance) of their opponent having a better hand, they will NEVER limp and acertinly NEVER call araise. There’s a serious problem with this. Thee STRONGER your opponents hand the HARDER it is to get away with it after the flop. A good player will limp or call raises with 67suited if they have enough chips. If they hit they can get paid off if their opponent is strong. If they Miss they can risk very little in determining if their opponent is strong or weak and steal.On the reverse side, novices misplay their aces. They either don’t get the pot big enough and are willing to call any all in on the flop turn or river, they let their opponents in for cheap and can’t get away from the hand, or they play too passively with them… While against certain fields it’s actually BETTER to keep the pot small knowing the entire field on average will go broke with top pair if you shove on the flop, however the good playerwill exploit this because they understand implied odds. I LOVE cracking aces because it’s SO easy to do. You might not hit often, but when you do people say things like “bad play” or “just my luck” They get angry, but they just don’t understand the kind of odds they’re laying you. Recently at the 2007 WSOP, a player raised it 400 with 50/100 blinds with KK. Scotty Nguyen on the big blind said “alright, just for you I’ll call.” The flop came 569. Scotty bet out saying “I think you got none of that, I’ll bet 900… And the player says “you think I got none of that? I’m all in. (trying to make it look like a bluff.) The thing is, he moved all in for over 21,000!! Scotty quickly called and turned over 78 and the opponent was drawing DEAD to runner runner. He said something like “it figures”. But here’s what his opponent doesn’t understand. Scotty only has to pay 300, yet if he hits his flop he’s getting 21k. Think about it, 300/21k is .14% so if Scotty has ANY two he can call here. , YES even with 27 he’ll hit 2 pair or better on about 8% of the flops. You have to realize that his opponent is going to have outs though. Even if itt’s only 2 outs, you still have to factor this in. lets say with any two his opponent has an average of 12% of winning. Well 100%-12% is 88%. So you actually want to take 88% of his implied odds, because even when you’re right, your opponent can suckout. So 88% of 21k is about 18,500 but 300/18500 is still less than 2%. However, unless your implied odds are tremendous like they are here, I still would recommend that you not make these plays unless you have your opponent outchipped. If you had 27 in the example, and you flopped 279 lets say. Well your opponent now has 5 outs(two kings and 3 9s) , a 20% chance of hitting one of those outs, and on the turn he’ll probably pickup another 3 outs and now he’ll STILL have about a 16% chance of hitting. Most of the time, you’d just be wasting chips trying to hit, and when you do hit, you MIGHT not get paid off. I’m more likely to make this move against an opponent who’s preventing me from playing small pot poker, or chop away at small pots and steal blinds. The benefit is certainly greater than it would be if it were an opponent who played horrible and telegraphed his hand, or without a big hand he just check folded all the time. However, I can call a raise with having a little more room against a player who is going to just check, or make that kind of play with AK even if it misses. So If you’re going to play your aces, you can shove all in and that’s actually a much better way to play them than people think. OR you can play a big pot and put at least 20% of your stack in preflop and form then on it doesn’t matter HOW you play it, there’s no way people can exploit it… And THEN there’s playing at least 14% of your stack in preflop then pushing all in on the flop. There’s variations of this, but I usually wouldn’t do anything else because playing the turn and river means playing like 13% before the flop 4% or more after the flop, and shoving all in on the turn, but this way you commit so much of your chips, if someone goes all in on the flop you’re going to want to call them.
The final way is to play a SMALL pot, which is good if you have a LOT of chips in front of you, or you’re at a very aggressive table and anticipate a preflop raise so you limp in, but people happen to just limp behind. Well if you get called, or maybe make a small raise or call a small raise with aces in position. This is probably the trickiest way to play aces, but it also can be VERY dangerous if you don’t know what you’re doing and you can’t get away from a ahnd. .You can also play based on your specific opponents, knowing that they’ll call top pair all in, but this requires a lot of skill as well.if you play a small pot against a very good opponent, or tight/passive opponent, you’re going to have to keep it small and be able to get away from an all in bet, andget away from dangerous flops, or at least keep it small by check calling, or throwing out small bets oOp if you have the type of opponent that’s just going to call if you bet, but bet if you check. Playing small pots with aces will force you to make difficult decisions, but will usually give you the best chance of survival and best risk/reward ratio, but unless you are VERY good, this can backfire and cost you TONS. .I HAVE folded aces after the flop more than a few times in a situation where it was more often than not beat. In a multiway pot it’s usually the easiest to get away from with a bunch of action against opponents that usually don’t show that kind of action, and suddenly it’s raises reraises and calls. A KQJ a QJT a JT9 suited or 678 suited or anything like this where you don’t have the nut flushdraware flops that you can easily get away from. I most likely will just shove in with aces, but if my opponents are overly passive, or overly aggressive, or overly tight (and predictable), or overly loose (after the flop), I may play a small pot, as long as I have a good understanding of all my opponents that potentially will be in the hand. Shoving in with AA can STILL get you in a position with 90% to double up if someone calls with AAk or AQ or A anything preflop… , but other than that, you will be a 80% favorite, 76% if they have like 67suited. Ideally you can play a small pot with aces, and have your opponents play very passively and bet based on the confidence that you have the winning hand. If you flop quads you can get whatever sort of bet you think they will call. If you flop like 27K, you know there are no straight possibilities and unless someone has 27 or 2K or 7K, you only have to worry about someone having a set. Basically you can bet an increase in the potsize to the degree that your odds of winning by the river is. This is true with any hand. , but don’t become too predictable if your opponents will pick up upon it, unless you are going to be able to reverse it later and bet strong with nothing and small with something, but if you were going to do that, I’d do the opposite order. Start by overbetting a bluff and valuebetting a goodhand, until you think your opponents should have figured it out. Now you can get payed off by moving all in on the river with the nuts (if you think your opponent has any kind of hand), and you can just make small bets on the flop and take down a LOT of pots without risking much.
So by not playing 56 suited you are pasing up an edge. Sometimes, at the right tables you are passing up an edge simply by not playing virtually ANY hand on the button, either because your opponents give you SUCH great implied odds, or your opponents fold too often to small betss, OR a combination of both where your opponent pushes big on a bluff, and bets small with a big hand and ignores potential draws.
On the otherhand, if you are misplaying aces, you are actuallyputting your opponent in a situation where he can play cocrrectly and turn your +expected value into negative.
The “hidden” way a player passes up an edge is by risking too much on only a slight edge, when the field plays poorly. This is very controversial, but think about it. If players are going to take unnecessary risks, you’re going to be able to finish deeper without playing a hand, and you’re going to be able to play the entire tournament without having to put yourself at risk with only a slight edge. You’re going to be able to chop away at every pot. You’re going to have players move in on you with the nuts, your “future expected amount of +EV situation is an “opportunity cost” that you give up to the degree in which your chances of getting knocked out are. This probably sounds confusing to many so I’ll try to explain it. If during the rest of the tournament you were to fold and you are expected on average to accumulate say 10,000 more chips before your next potential all in, by calling an all in early in the tournament with a 55% chance to win, you gain 1500 55% of the time, and LOSE out on the ability to accumulate 10,000 chips before your next potential all in. then again, if you win, you will also accumulate that 10000, so you might say that you win 11,500 55% of the time, and lose 10,000 the other 45% of the time but this is incorrect. Even if your odds are the SAME on your next coinflip (although since we’ve established the field is weak, it’ll probably be much better), you also miss on the opportunity to double up should you get knocked out that 45% of the time, and by the second time you try to double up, your risk of being knocked out is twice as great. So
Situation 1:
Double up from 1500 to 3000 accumulate 10,000 more chips 55% of the time
OF the 55% that you survive, you double up 55% of the time again
Leaving you with a 30.25% chance to make it to 26000 and a 70% chance to be done.
(.3025*26000=expected value of 10890)
Situation 2
PASS on the double up from 1500 accumulate 10,000,
Then you take the double up
55% of the time you will make it to 23000
(.55*23000=expected value of 12650)
NOW…
IF you are a winning player who can accumulate chips by just chopping away, stealing blinds and taking down pots with small bets, and playing it till the river without getting much in the pot, and all of this, you will be able to accumulate chips without getting knocked out. IF you happen to be wrong and maybe find yourself at a table that you can’t do this with, or after awhile you can’t manage to keep up THEN by that point the blinds are big enough where taking that 55% coinflip will STILL put you in a better position chip wize than you would with your first double up.You might get a raise and a call and pickup aces, but NOW if you HAPPENED to chip down more than you wanted, the BLINDS are still so big that you can go from 15X the big blind to 36X the big blind. Which although might be the same amount of dead money in the pot in terms of BBs, it represents a lot more chips as a percentage of your stack., and is a lot more significant. Or you might get called by 2 players because they THINK you aren’t as strong as you are because you’ve become short, and now you get MORE money in and a better EV because even against 2 opponents your odds are still over 70% to triple up.
EXAMPLE: at 1500 with 10 and 20 blinds a double up after a raise and a call might bring you from 75X to 156X. HOWEVER, in terms of chips, if you can only tred water, and even if you happen to lose a little, if the blinds are 50/100, the extra 6big blinds in the pot represent 600 chips. Rather than going from 1500 to 3120, you go from 1500 to 3600. DON’T get me wrong, I am NOT saying you should sit around and wait for a hand, in fact, quite the opposite. I think you should chop away at SMALL pots whenever possible, but only taking small risks to do so. I think you should be willing to consider RISK management because it HEAVILY relates toyour overall value of a tournament. The earlier it is, the MORE willing to pass up an all in you should be. Later in a tournament, I am MUCH MUCH MUCH more willing to make a move. Whether Arnold Snyder is right about his theory about Harrington’s “M” being flawed is debateable. I THINK he may have something to it… If the blinds went up so dramatically that you KNEW that you were only going to have 100 hands to play, you could calculate that sayat a minimum in order to ensure survival you have to either be able to win 1 “M<” per round on average, or double up before you get to half your chips. If you only have 100 hands until you run out, some may incorrectly assume that at 50 hands they are at the half way point, but that may be incorrect as well due to the structure. However, lets just assume based on the number of rotation, and what the blinds will be you can only see 50 hands before you at minimum have to be all in, and all in (if you expect to be able to accumulate chips). Well then you know that you can expect at least 1 starting hand in the top 2% of hands. 1/50=.02 Unfortunately, waiting for a hand this strong becomes a mistake. EVEN IF you do get your opponent all in with that hand, you are not EXPECTED to double up 100% of the time. This is the flaw. However, if you KNEW you are going to get called, you COULD figure out an exact formula for which to move in with based on number of hands left. But there IS a few flaws in BOTH Snyder’s AND Harrington’s thinking. The “number of hands for survival” is more accurate based on the patience factor, HOWEVER there is LESS reward in moving in when the blinds are lower, and unless the risk is much more significantly less, it’s not exactly worth it… ALSO, the fact that at tight passive tables at which there will be very few raises preflop mean you get to see a flop without paying anything. If it comes down to bigblind smallblind headsup, in extreme situations as the big blind you will be able to check it down and win ½ times, so your # of hands left is actually TWICE as high as Snyder says. If on SB vs BB play, you ccan expect to get more money in before either taking it down or say at the river by having the best hand, or just can outplay your opponent, you can win more than 1 M without really doing much. Also, small blind play there are situations where it’s profitable to shove all in. Against the perfect opponent you can shove all in and be profitable. Against non perfect opponent you can shove in with other hands. So I think although Snyder has a point in certain structures you don’t have as many moves, or as much time, and it’s often better to loosen your requirement earlier due to OTHER people and their zones, I think the fact that you’ll have either the potodds to call from SB and win enough to make enough of a profit to diminish the amount of “true hands left” without taking too much risk, and from BB play you might get a walk or win pots with little risk that the moves aren’t as necessary. Also, I believe many times playing just a bit tighter in the yellow zone (where Snider says you should be shoving) in many situations is actually better… it allows you to get away with more steals once the blinds DO go up. In these situations you still need to have your game open and be willing to make steals, but I often find that one SB error and then the blinds go up and I am FORCED to make a move when I am Most of the time GOING to get called. I’d rather not shove in when it’s folded to me if my opponents are limping enough, but not calling enough, It’s often MUCH better to just SHOVE all in AFTER a couple limpers, as you get more out of it… But again, to get away with it you need a TIGHT image as well. Rather than playing small ball, and rather than shoving to only pick up 1 additional M, youintend to shove after a couple limpers and pick up 2.5 M, and this means you can afford to wait and only shove with HALF the hands that Snyder suggests, and you’ll get a better payoff. And When the blinds DO go up, Many times allins are more likely to be called then the large bets as Harrington states against good players you should bet enough to commit your stack as they know you’re basically going to call an all in anyways and it indicates a little more strength like you want a call.
I agree with this. But if all this time being tight and you DO actually get a hand, with BIG blinds if you don’t manage to pick up many chips, not only are you going to get action with a big hand, but the blinds are MUCH more significant and are a bigger deal. After a raise and a call you shove in with aces, which is better, at 15X the big blind at 50/100 blinds, or at only 10X the big blind with 75/150 blinds? At 50/100 blinds, 15X the big blinds is 1500 chips. With a raise and a call, lets assume a 3X raise. You go from15X to about 36X more or less depending on if someone from the BB cals, or someone on th button calls, or of course both the raiser and the caller could call, but lets just assume there’s 6x the BB in deadmoney… But what about with 10X the big blind at 75/150 blinds? Well now you go from10X to 26X, but which is more? Actually both are, depending on who you ask. 26X 150 is 3900. 36X 100 is only 3600. Well lets face it, at 36X the big blind you have lots of play, but at 3600 when the blinds go to 75/150, you’re going to find yourself at only 24X the big blind where as folding and making LESS moves, but then blinding down and finally picking up a hand and pushing as only 9X the big blind after the action ACTUALLY leads to a better result then if you got the hand early, pushed in and doubled up and right afterwards the blinds jumped up. Obviously you can’t control when the hands come, but to me making a double up too early in a sense is taking the wrong kind of risk and essentially like running on a tredmill. But what’ my point is, is that I think Snyder’s arguments make sense, that the “true M” in terms of how many rotations you have left is often very incorrect, especially in turbo structures in looser games where all ins get called. However, due to the value of a blindsteal INCREASING, and the value of a double up INCREASING, and every double up at one level has an “opportunity cost” of missing out on the future EV (which is greater on the next level), and theAbility for you to be able to survive longer than snyder says without stealing due to the occasional walk, or BB vs SB play being an advantage to skillful players, and SB having the odds to limp at a table that lets you hoping to hit big, and things like this make some of the things less relevant.There is certainly more value in winning than coming in 2nd, but hypothetically, it takes MUCH more work to come in first, and much more risk. Coming in second hypothetically just means averaging 1M per rotation for the entire tournament. Obviously this will be higher early, higher on the bubble, and higher at stages where you have more chips, but lower towards the end, after the bubble, at aggressive tables, and at the final table, You obviously need to find a way to accumulate MUCH more than 1B per rotation on average to be able to sit and wait for situations where you are unable to steal without risking it all. But if overall the average is 1 BB per rotation for the entire tournament and yuou put yourself at risk very little, you can get 2nd place. You will manage to squeak into 2nd place without having much of a chance to win, but your chance of getting 2nd by using this method is greater if you manage risks and make taking the best risk/reward scenarios overall. I certainly think it is possible for MUCH of the tournament to play small pot poker, pick your spots and be selective aggressive, and there certainly are points in tournaments when I think it is correct to take HUGE risks. (calling all in with like QJ near the bubble in a tight table where just one maniac is raising every single hand, knowing if you take him out you’ll have MUCH more than the chips from winning the pot)
It’s funny, I see many sides of Snyder’s arguments, but I ALSO see some sides for the OPPOSITE being true.
=
Every football coach knows that you shouldn’t take more risk than you need to. If you could run the ball all game and win, there’s NO point in passing at all. If the score is still tied later in the game, both coaches will try to open things up and make more moves… Where as the leading team will do whatever they can to LIMIT the moves of the opponent. The idea is that by running the ball and controlling the clock, you give the opponent less time with the ball, and less time to make plays, you put more pressure on their defense and wear them out, and you also put more pressure on their passing game and force them to make a play through the air. The best coaches and teams run the ball well, and stop the run. They also are good at making plays at the pass.They see the ENTIRE picture and understand that the key to winning is tojust grind away at the first downs minimize risk and put your opponent in a position where he ahs to take the MOST risk, and that’s where you capitalize and win the most consistently. However, if they reach a point where they know that running the ball isn’t going to work anymore, if something goes wrong or if there is a certain amount of time left, if their opponent scores, they know the pressure is going to be on them. So a good team runs as much as possible early, playing VERY conservative, and then if they deem necessary, they open up their game.
Baseball teams understand that same concept in a way. , only they are in it for the long hall of the entire season. They start with the pitcher that can do well consistently, they want to put themselves in a position where they can consistently defend the batters. At some point the pitchers arm weakens, the baseball team has less room to work with. Maybe he throws out his arm or gets soar. At various stages they must know when to put in another pitcher and take a risk on him so they can be back in a position to defend well. The game gets late and they really need to make something happen. These consistant pitchers grinding it way that have good indurance and consistant just aren’t going to get it done anymore. It’s time to gear up and put everything out there. It doesn’t matter if the pitcher is a little inconsistent and a little wild, it’s time to close out the opponents. Same thing with the pinch hitters coming in. You don’t need a guy that can get on base if you’re down, you need some guy that can swing for the fense, putting your team in a position to rally, get the momentum going, maybe STEAL a few bases and get in position to make the BIG play and win it all.
I hope you see how ALL of this is related to poker tournaments. The streaky inconsistent players double up early, but the consistant winners, they grind it away early, not risking much of there stack. They might get invovlved with a lot of blindsteals and bluffs at small pots as long as they think that grinding away (running the ball), will help them gain chips and not lose them (move the ball and convert well) in the long run. If they can steal blinds the whole game and not get involved with a big pot the whole tournament or all in risking illimination (win without having to pass and risk a turnover), why would they do anything BUT chop away at the small pots? Just as the good teams “know themselves and their opponents”, and when they need to start making a move, the good poker players have a sense for the current table(how opponents are playing in that quarter of play) as well as the entire tournament field of players and blind structure and how one performs over another. If they’re going to HAVE to make a move and go for the win, they know exactly win, but ideally they wait as LATE as possible to open up, unless a big pot leaves a high percentage of winning with VERY minimal risk, either in terms of the chips the players going to have to risk for a positive EV, or risking it all with the nuts and very few outdraws. (Think about a playaction on 2nd and inches when the Oline is winning the battle of the trenches leaving someone wide open deep downfield). A player may get shortstacked and have to make a play to get back in it, or open up a little to get in a position where he has more moves available, and so he has enough chips that he can continue to play small ball and open up his calling range on short stacks, or be able to make reraises without risking a big portion of his stack, or continue to play smallball without being in jepordy of becoming a short stack and having to wait for cards. ( A team may have to be aggressive to take the lead if he loses it, or may have a third down and long that he has to make a pass play to try to convert so he has ALL of his options available, run or pass, long or short; so he can continue to put pressure on his opponent by working the clock and forcing opposing offense in passing situations)
On the otherhand, this player knows that the earlier on in the game, the less chances they have to take, assuming they are the better player/team. (A Punt is acceptable early, and much better than risking a lucky tipped pass that goes for an INT and TD…)
A great poker player controls the size of the pot, and cares more about risk management (winning a small pot than risking losing a big one). Just as a great team controls the clock and cares more about time management and avoiding turnovers (winning the battle of field position rather than risking a turnover).
However, a goot team also knows exactly when to go after it bigtime. They grind away and grind away and set up their opponents, just waiting for their LBers to wear down, their safties to move up and the team to think run run run…
A great poker player does the same, grinding away at small pots, bluffing at smallpots, maybe even caling someone and folding, or calling to bluff on the turn or minraising opponents to bluff on the turn, maybe even SHOWING a bluff, but the point is, the player suddenly knows EXACTLY when to go after it and make the big bluff or the big all in, or play a big pot, to push their opponent. They don’t want the first down, the field position the clock management anymore, it’s time to go for the throat, the big play the touchdown. They have their opponent on their heels, just waiting for them to go on tilt and he STRIKES playing the big pot and all those small pots they took pays off big, all those bluffs they got caught in, whatever happened it payed off HUGE because now their opponent moves in and they got the nuts, or they take down a big bluff (or a big long pass downfield to cripple their opponents room to defend and put them in scoring range.). You see, not much is different in poker as iis in football, the lessons are there in everything. Metaphors and comparisons work because so many different things have the same pattern, the same human psychology and the same outmaneuvering aspect. If you have enough things similar, you can relate them, and know exactly how to dominate, sometimes they just make the picture more clear that’s already there, for example “rock paper scissors” is an Excellent simplification based on an observation that helps you get the message across.
How to play irrationally and baffle your opponents.
First I should mention you want to recognize patterns in their game and see if you can do anything to take advantage of it. If not, they are most likely a completely rational player and irrational things will baffle them. They will expect to only be trapped with AA or KK. Open this up at an aggressive table.
PREFLOP
A rational move is “punishing the limper”. Well punish the raise by liming with stronger hands and rarely raising. Then simply re-raise against their likely weak/steal attempt. They may end up with a hand, but you’ll usually win enough to make up for the times you’re up against a hand and you also may get a call with a much worse hand as they may think you have no hand and are attempting a resteal. You can also smooth call
Hands that should be used for this are generally
99
TT
JJ
QQ
KK
AA
AJ
AQ
AK
The best part about this is once people notice this, it allows you to resteal from early position later on when you have slightly lesser hands 77 66 55 AT KQs and if they don’t raise you can see more cheap flops.
You can also represent much bigger hands and be much more believable if you do this after busting someone with one of the top hands. Not only that, but you are getting more money in the pot.
If you’re all short rather than deep stacked in a tournament you maybe best just moving all in rather than reraising substantially which you may do if you are deep stacked
If you are significantly bigger stacked you probably just want to move them in. You have represented aces and it is difficult for them to call. If they are not a good player they will call with any pocket pair, and ace and KQ which you will have better than a coin flip or dominated. If they are a good player they will fold these hands and you will pick up a big pot. To more effectively represent aces you may also want to limp with AA KK and QQ. These are hands that you could just call with.
Also, if you already have trapped your opponent using this move you can go with alternative tactics. One of these is just min-raising, this works from all positions. It works the same if you are reraised, and it gets more money into the pot. Obviously you have to simply just call and minraise with other hands as well to mix things up.
Limping with these solid hands will allow you to limp with worse hands later without getting reraised. This becomes especially important if sometime you become shortstacked. Also another one of these tactics is raising big (5X BB) to isolate people headsup or take down the blinds. You usually want to do this to portray an image of pushing people around. If you are called you have the best hand, if you are raised you are probably beat.
Betting big should be used with hands that hold up well heads up like AA-77 AKs AQs AJs or AK. I would prefer not to do it with AA or AKs or AK (unless you think you will get called a fair amount and would get more money in this way) since your hand will hold up well against multiple players as well. AQs or pocket pairs would probably be the best. If you are going to do it with Ajs, you must do it with stronger hands like AK KK and QQ as well.
You generally want to see flops or go all in with the best (dominating) hand if you can get called. I prefer min raising. You may only win 50% of the hands with 3 people in the pot with KK or QQ, but you will make a significant amount more. If you get AJ to fold to your JJ you will be missing out on a lot of money if a J hits. Same goes for KQ with KK QQ with QJ, ect.
If you soft play aces you have to be aware of maniacs. If you haven’t seen any, and suddenly go against an all in you may need to fold. Since this method of play doesn’t take much to double up, it shouldn’t hurt you. Plus you are getting payed like 5:1 all the way through when you get 1:2. Of course if you are getting payed 2:1 heads up and can get more money in this way, since your odds are much better one-on-one you may want to just get as much money in as you can. Taking the best longrun payout isn’t worth it as you can’t continuously get aces. Since the odds are favorable either way, you simply want as much money in as you can. With all things equal, you want less people. If you can get approximately the same heads-up as you could multipot go with the heads-up.
Soft playing aces takes more skill. Although you are getting more value, you aren’t getting as much money in, and you aren’t really going to always know when you’re beat. If you are in late position I would make a big raise (double the pot size) and try to get heads up action against a loose player with a crap hand get it all in on the flop. If you’re deep stacked heads-up against calling station, just play strongly until river.
FLOP-TURN-RIVER
Over bet river. People who have played awhile generally see a big bet on the river as a bluff or extreme strength. When you have a good hand you can do this and make them call with a slightly worse hand anywhere to ace high against a novice who is tied to AK.
Min raises or what looks like “post oak bluff” until river then go all in. Against rookies simply get the to feel slightly pot committed by raising small but slightly substantial amount. The tighter the player preflop, the more they’re going to feel like they have the best hand. They’re usually not used to playing until the river unless they have the best, so they are more likely to see your move as a bluff
You really only need a bad read or two to get a call when you’re ahead. You probably could try to milk it to the river against calling stations instead, but against a good player this move is best. It may work 40% of the time, so decide if 40% of your chips is better than what you’ll get if you bet all the way through you should do it.
Check in late position and then move all in on the turn (the less it makes sense, the better). This play is best against a solid player who makes reads or against a player who hasn’t seen much of your play and still has more chips than you.
Early position. Move all in on flop, occasionally do this with a flushdraw against weak/tight players or a flop with one face card against 1 or 2 opponents to be unpredictable and to promote the “maniac” image and get you a call later when you flop the nuts. If you have top 2 pair this may be a good move as well.
If you want to be able to make an all in bluffs and resteals, keep in mind that you have to have a lot of all-in moves in your normal game.
Always be asking yourself “how can I bust this player?” If I have the resources to call a big bet when I’m on a draw, will he call an all in against a flush thinking I hit?
What type of play will make the player think, “he must be bluffing or he can’t have a hand”
What will make the player think “I can’t call”
Check all the way through then all in on river.
Min bet then all in on river?
Call then all in on river?
Bet all the way through?
bet check-raise min then all in on river?
Always make sure to use the rule of thumb on multi-way pots and bluffs
WHAT I DO WHEN I WIN/
Fold a lot preflop
Fold almost as much on the flop
How I built my bankroll SAFEly
I generally play sit n gos. I generally play cheap multitabletornies if I have a decent bankroll as well.
I make smart laydowns.
I play premium hands in cash games. Fold like crazy. Sit in at small blind, switch tables before BB. Only sit in with minimum even with a bankroll. If you notice a really profitable table, at lower stakes, you can sit in with max and wait for premium hand.
How I built my bankroll FAST:
SLOW DOWN and play TIGHT. It’s counterintuitive but it works.
WIN cheap MTT
I generally played it all the way to the river… and put very little money into it unless I have a hand. I occasionally go all in on turn if I think my opponent is on a draw, but usually just let him hit or bluff.
I look for tables that play 50-60% of the flops. I take notes. I make reads, and I watch betting patterns. I generally only use 5% of my bankroll and leave if I double up or win a big hand.. Then I sit back down again with 5% and repeat. Calculate double up and break-even odds based on starting chip stack and blinds to give you an idea
I wait for a big hand in a cash game. If I don’t get it I switch tables before the big blind hits.
I’m in a good mood. I play when I’m winning and happy.
With a big hand I try to raise enough to force the short stacks to move all in, that way if other people call the small reraise, I can reraise again and get a lot more money in the pot.
Multi
Make a big play to get chips if you get a hand, then back WAYYY off and sit and wait until psychos take each other out. OR just wait it out and pick a spot to double up. Adapt and see cheap flops if the table permits.
Figure out how many hands you have left, and double up break even odds.
Wait for a big hand… After you get it and psychos gone, start to buy a few pots, show a bluff then wait.
This is the long awaited fifth edition of my guide no limit holdem tournament play. As it is approaching book length, I am hoping to get it published. My tentative title is “Play Poker Like the Fish.”
I have a lot of talent as an author. My girlfriend says I should get together with Darrel Benson and write a book.
The earlier editions of this manual have encountered criticism. Some people even thought this manual was a joke.
I have added new material on inflection points. I am sure this will receive a lot of criticism, as my material on the gap principle has. While my interpretation of these concepts in different from those of Sklansky and Harrington, I believe that my approach in the one actually applied more in practice.
Everywhere I play, I see people using my plays. However, unlike Doyle Brunson, I have not had to modify my style of play due to letting my secrets out. Like TJ Cloutier, I have been accused of not playing as I recommend.
I understand that David Sklansky is being considered for a Nobel Prize for his contributions to poker theory. I heard Phil Hellmuth on TV saying that his book was the greatest due to its unique feature of assigning animals to types of players (not fish, donkeys, and sharks, but elephants, mice, jackals, lions, and eagles). However, I am sure that my work will be recognized as the greatest classic of poker literature.
For my loyal fans, I have put the new material from the fourth edition in italics. In addition to inflection points, I have added new material on play with large blinds, position, and Party speed tournaments. I have added a new link, additional tips from the pros, and expanded the material on how to play specific hands.
I. Preflop Play
A. The Gap Principle
The gap principle states that you need a bigger hand to raise than to call a raise. In general, you should avoid raising before the flop, but you can limp or call a raise. You can limp with any pair, any two high cards, or any suited or connecting cards. In general, once you have limped in, you can call a raise of any size.
B. Raising
If you must raise, it is generally best to make a miniraise. That way you avoid knocking anyone out of the pot. Since you think you have the best hand, you want as many people in the pot as possible.
Another approach is to open raise from early position for 5-10x BB with KK-99 or AJ-AK. That way you can frequently pick up the pot right there. Plus you can build a big pot and your opponents will feel intimidated that you have such a big hand. Also, if anyone reraises you after such a big raise, you can be pretty sure they have you beat and you can fold.
C. Cold calling raises.
You need a stronger hand to cold call a raise than to call if you have already limped. Generally, you can call with any ace or any two high cards.
C. Allin raises by short stacks
If a short stack raises allin rather than making a normal raise or limping that is an indication that he does not have a strong hand and is just trying to steal the blinds. Therefore, you can call with any hand you would normally limp with.
D. Playing a Big Stack
If you follow the advice in this manual, you will frequently find yourself with a big stack. Now you have a chance at the big money. Don’t blow it! Play cautiously and stay out of trouble.
E. Playing the Short Stack
With a short stack, you want to limp in and see as many flops as possible. Remember, you really don’t have anything until you see a flop. However, if you are raised you can call as usual.
Another approach is to limp or miniraise and then fold if some raises. That way you avoid busting out by running into a big hand.
Sometimes, you do need to make an allin move. It should usually be made from early position for greater intimidation value. When short stacked, it is good to go allin with any ace.
F. What To Do If a Short Stack is Allin
If a short stack is allin in front of you, you should flat call with any of the limping hands discussed above, but you should never raise over the top.
G. If Two or More Players Are Allin
If two or more players are allin before the flop, this is a great opportunity to win a big pot. Generally, you can call with any ace, any two high cards, or any pair.
H. Stealing the Blinds
While we generally don’t advocate raising, sometimes you want to raise to steal the blinds. This is often effective early in the tournament. Generally it is good to make a miniraise to steal the blinds. Good hands to steal with are any ace or king. You can also steal with total junk (after all you are stealing). This will confuse your opponents and get you more action when you really do have a hand. If you steal and are reraised, you should generally push. Don’t let anyone resteal from you. If you get 2 or 3 callers, you should follow up with a big bet on the flop whatever cards hit.
I. Punishing the Limpers
We will cover an advanced strategy known as “punishing the limpers” that is highly respected by some, although we prefer an alternate approach known as “punishing the raisers.” Punishing the limpers assumes that a limper is unlikely to have a strong hand. This approach may work against players who have not read this manual and are not aware of the advantages of limping with strong hands.
Say there are several limpers in the pot. Then you can push with any two cards, since they will probably all fold, and if not you probably have as good a hand as the one you are called with. Another approach can be used later in the tournament when limping is less common. If there is an early position limper and you are short stacked with 8xBB or less in the CO position or later, you can push with any two cards. The limper cannot have a good hand limping this late in the tournament and will probably fold. If not, you probably have the best hand plus pot odds.
J. Trapping
Trapping can be used with any hand AQ, JJ or better from any position. You don’t raise with these hands. You just limp in. Then if someone raises, you reraise. Alternatively, you can smooth call and trap your opponent for more bets on later rounds.
K. Position
Position is a generally overrated concept. If you have a strong hand like two cards ten or higher, what does it matter what seat you are in? You have to be aware how other players think though. Many players regard a raise from early position as representing a stronger hand. Therefore, you should play the opposite and raise more freely from early position, as you will have more chance to win the pot before or after the flop.
L. Facing a Reraise
In general this problem should avoided by limping rather than raising. However, later in the tournament it is common practice to raise, so you will find yourself being reraised. The important thing is never to fold to a reraise. You haven’t seen the flop, so you don’t know if you are beaten. Plus, if someone really had a big hand, he would trap rather than raise to steal the pot.
M. How to Play Late in the Tournament
You see these idiots making all these crazy moves with weak hands late in the tournament which they justify with pot odds folding equity, isolation etc. Just play your regular game and limp, call, or put in standard raises as your hands warrant it.
N. Inflection Point
The inflection point is a time late in the tournament when you need to chance your strategy. Before the inflection point, you should try to see as many flops and possible, limping and calling raises. After the inflection point, you should play very tightly, so as to avoid busting out. By avoiding playing hands, you can move higher in the prize money without doing anything.
O. How to Play When the Blinds Become Very Large
In turbo/speed tournaments and daily live tournaments, the blinds often become very large so that almost everyone just has a small multiple of the big blind. At this point it is important to play very tight and only play premium hands. You can frequently cash or move up in the prize money by just not playing any hands.
II. Playing the Flop
A. Reading Hands
I will give a couple of examples which will make clear how easy it is to read your opponents hands. Say you limp with A9o, someone raises and you call. If the board comes ace high, you can put your opponent on a pair of face cards and go allin. If the board comes nine high, you can put your opponent on a big ace and go allin.
Similarly, if you limp with 77, call a raise, and the flop comes with low cards you can put your opponent on AQ or AK and go allin.
B. Playing Top Pair
You should generally be ready to go allin with top pair.
C. Playing Draws
Like top pair, you can generally call or go allin with any draw.
A more cautious approach is to make the absolute minimum bet, such as one BB. This will discourage other players from betting while you have a chance to make your hand. If you follow the advise of this manual, that will be the same way you play a big hand, so it will be difficult for opponents to raise you.
D. If You Flop a Big Hand
If you flop a big hand, it is generally best to go allin right away.
Another approach with a big hand is to trap with it. That involves making the absolute minimum bets on the flop and turn and then pushing on the river.
E. Calling on the Flop
If someone makes a small bet of ½ the pot on the flop, they probably don’t have anything, so you can call with any hand.
F. Bluffing
Bluffing is best made early in the tournament. If your initial bluff is called, follow up by going allin. You can usually intimidate your opponents into folding.
It is good to bluff when you are not sure if you are ahead. That way, you have two ways to win. Your opponent may fold to your bluff and he may call and it turns out you had the best hand.
G. How to Tell If Your Opponent is Bluffing
If you bet with a strong hand and your opponent raises, you can put him on a bluff and push.
H. When to Fold
Generally, you should fold when you are sure you are beaten. You never want to throw away a winner.
I. When You Don’t Know What Else to Do, Push
This is a more advanced play that follows from the principle of never folding a winning hand. Say you are in a 3-way pot with 54s. The flop comes JT9 with a two of your suit. One player makes a pot sized bet and the other calls. If you call, you are drawing to a flush which may not be good, and you probably face more big bets on the turn, which will make it difficult to call with your draw. Since you cannot fold a hand that might be a winner, you should push. Both opponents will probably fold. If they don’t, maybe you will win with a flush.
III. Playing Specific Hands
A. Playing AQ
AQ has a reputation as a hand you can lose a lot of money with. While if you understand the contents of this manual you will realize that hands like A6 are much more profitable, AQ can also be profitable if played correctly.
The key is to never raise preflop with AQ. If you raise and an ace or queen doesn’t flop, where are you? For example, if there are two limpers in the pot and you have AQ, you should just limp. This can be a very tricky play. Say someone in late position tries to steal the pot from a bunch of limpers by pushing with AT or KQ. Won’t they be surprised when you call with AQ.
An advanced way to play AQ is to open miniraise with it from early position. This is a good compromise between raising and limping.
If you miniraise with AQ and get reraised, you should reraise allin. If someone had a big pair, they would probably smooth call according to the trapping principle outlined in this manual, so you are probably even or ahead, and your opponent may fold to the push.
While it is generally better to limp initially with AQ, if someone raises from early position, you should always reraise allin with AQ. This is a perfect semibluff. Your opponent will probably fold, and if not you are probably at least even. This follows principles of if you don’t know what else to do push.
An unknown player doubled up and almost made it to the final table of the WSOP by making as excellent play of this type, reraising allin 30 x pot with AQo.
If you limp with AQ and someone raises, you should reraise allin. They will probably think you have aces and fold. If not, you have a good chance of winning the hand.
B. Playing AA
If there are several limpers to you with AA or several players have called a raise, you should make a small raise or reraise, not big enough to make anyone fold. Remember, you have a big hand and you want action. If there is one player who has raised, make a very small reraise or flat call to trap him after the flop.
It is OK to bet the flop with AA, but not enough to make anyone fold. If someone else bets, make a small bet or flat call.
The time to make your move with AA is on the turn. You should move allin with AA on the turn no matter what.
Another approach to playing AA, often used in practice and recommended by world champion Tom McEvoy, is to put a large raise or reraise in preflop in an attempt to take down the pot. That way you avoid having your aces busted.
C. Playing Medium Pairs
If there are several limpers to you or several players have called a raise, you should always raise or reraise with medium pairs. A small raise to build the pot is good. You can also make a large raise to try to win the pot or get heads up. These hands play much better heads up. With many players, someone is likely to flop a higher pair.
Later in the tournament, you can open raise with a medium pair. If you are reraised, you should always move in. A reraise is an attempt to steal the pot. At best your opponent has AQ or AK. You want to take the pot with your push or get the money in with the best hand.
After the flop, you can often play medium pairs to the river. You will be surprised how often a medium pair will hold up.
D. Playing a High Card Hand
If you understand the essence of this manual, you will realize that the most profitable hands to play are any two high cards T or higher. These hands were called trouble hands by Doyle Brunson, because of all the trouble they can cause for your opponents.
You should generally limp with these hands and call any raise. If you make a pair, you can play it very aggressively.
Later in the tournament, you can raise with these hands rather than limp. For example, it is good to raise with AT or KQ from early position. If you are reraised, you should flat call. Then if you make a pair, the preflop reraiser will generally automatically bet at the pot. Therefore, you should raise or checkraise, depending on position.
E. Playing Suited Connectors
While you are generally playing for a straight or flush, if you flop a pair you can generally play it aggressively. As mentioned elsewhere, you can generally go allin with any draw.
Aside from suited connectors, similar hands such as T9o, Q5s, 63s, and 42s can generally be played from any position. You want to limp with these hands, but if you are raised you can call.
In fact, you can call any number of preflop raises with a suited connector. Doyle Brunson in “Super System” mentions that suited connectors are great for winning a big pot against a big pair. The best way to do this is to call a preflop allin. The guy with the big pair will be really angry when you take him out this way, but that just shows what a good play it is.
IV. Playing Specific Types of Players
A. Weak/Tight Player
Early in a tournament a player who limps in and then folds to a raise and a reraise when everyone else calls is likely a weak/tight player. If someone folds to a ½ pot bet on the flop when everyone else calls, that is another sign of a weak/tight player.
The best way to deal with a weak/tight player is whenever he raises, reraise allin. The weak/tight player will almost certainly get scared and fold.
B. Maniacs
Maniacs are easy to recognize. The best way to deal with a maniac is to give him a dose of his own medicine. Don’t let him push you around. Make huge bets and raises with nothing.
V. Miscellaneous Topics
A. Adjusting to the Play of a Table
You should generally follow the lead of the other players at the table. For example, you should play tight at a tight table and loose at a loose table. At the beginning of the tournament, you can play very loose, and make and call bets much bigger than the tiny blinds. However, as the bubble approaches, you should tighten up your play considerably.
B. How to Play the Bubble
This is easy. Don’t play any hands during the bubble period. Then you avoid busting out on the bubble and not making the money. If you have a big hand you feel you have to play, miniraise. That way, you can fold if someone reraises.
Another good technique on the bubble is to stall. Take forever to make your moves. That way someone on another table will bust out first.
In a supersatellite, you should approach the bubble completely differently. In this case, there is no money to win, so the important thing is to win the tournament. If you have a big stack in a supersatellite, you should play aggressively. Reraise people allin to use their irrational fear of busting out to pick up the pot. Call pushes to bust people out. See a lot of flops and always be ready to make a move to pick up the pot.
C. Playing a Rebuy
The key to playing a rebuy is gambling to build a big stack. You don’t have to worry about busting out, since you can always rebuy if you do. You should frequently go allin preflop. Eventually, people will realize that you don’t often don’t have much and will call you, giving you a chance to get lucky and build a big stack. You should generally go allin preflop with any ace.
After the flop, you can generally go allin with any pair or draw.
After the rebuy period, you should generally raise, call a raise, or reraise with any of the limping hands discussed in the first section. If you see a flop, you should generally take your opponent allin in stages, regardless of what cards hit. Usually, your opponents will be intimidated by your aggressive play and fold.
D. How to Play a Party Poker Speed Tournament
These play like normal tournaments until about 20% of the field is left. At that point, you should stop playing any hands unless forced to by the blinds. You should also stall, regardless of your stack size. If you are not a short stack, you soon will be with the escalating blinds.
From that point forward, you should play no hands, except when put allin by the blinds. You should also continue to stall once the tournament is hand-for-hand. That way you can slow the whole tournament down. This is great for combating the idiots who tried to accumulate a big stack rather than just dodge the blinds. This way almost everyone will be put allin by the blinds. If you get lucky, and win your twice round confrontation with the other blind and any jerk who plays a big hand, you can make the final table.
VI. Tips From the Pros
The following tips are taken from “No Limit and Pot Limit Holdem” and other books by Cloutier and McEvoy. This book is highly recommended. A writer with no serious poker experience used the advice in this book to double up against TJ himself and take the lead in the WSOP.
You should only reraise preflop with AA or KK.
Say you reraise with AK and get two callers. The flop comes AQQ. You should check/fold. While a good player would fold QQ to a reraise, it is likely someone called with QQ and has quads.
Making a big overbet push from late position with a small pair is a bad play. It is better to put in a standard raise. Then you can fold if you are beaten or outdrawn.
Unsuited connectors are as good as suited connectors. You are likely to lose money by making a flush that is not the nuts.
If you raise with AK and miss the flop you should fold. It is obvious your opponent(s) are ahead of you with small to medium pocket pairs.
If you raise with KK and an ace flops, you should check/fold.
Say you call a raise and flop a set. Your opponent leads out. You should make a big overbet raise to get your opponent to fold, so he won’t be able to catch anything to beat you. The book indicates that in particular this is the proper way to play against TJ.
Don’t try to steal in particular from late position. Late position steals are too predictable.
Avoid draws. You just wind up bleeding chips calling and chasing. Otherwise, you wind up putting all your chips in behind. Don’t play suited connectors. They just lead to draws.
Sometimes you have to go on feel and raise with a weak hand. If you raise with 72o and the flop comes 772, no one will put you on 72 and you can win a big pot.
55 and TT are particularly valuable because they are key cards for straights.
VII. Links
http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_magazine/archives/?a_id=13878&m_id=87 A world champion reveals the secrets of how he won the WSOP. This article sums up his approach to poker.
http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_magazine/archives/?a_id=14413&m_id=65551 How to take first place.
http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_magazine/archives/?a_id=14426&m_id=65551 Cash game advice on playing AA and AK also applies to tournaments.
http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_magazine/archives/showarticle.php?a_id=14773&m_id=65563 A different approach to playing aces from the one recommended in this manual.
http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_magazine/archives/showarticle.php?a_id=14777&m_id=65563 How to take out a top professional using techniques from this manual.
http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_magazine/archives/showarticle.php?a_id=14756&m_id=65563 Mixing up your play is an important technique in tournament play.
http://www.pocketfives.com/12C4D99D-92DA-42E5-BB1C-73D253253DB4.aspx Making the right read and laying down a strong hand.
VIII. Recommended Reading
“Poker Tournament Strategy”, Sylvester Suzuki
“Poker Tournament Tips From the Pros”, Shane Smith
“Tournament Poker”, Tom McEvoy
“Pot Limit and No Limit Holdem”, Tom McEvoy and TJ Cloutier
“Super System II”, Doyle Brunson’s section on tournament play
Copyright 2005, Joseph Hammerman.
Edited by betgo (09/06/05 02:33 PM)But the same applies with doubling up. If you try to double up early lets say you win exactly 50% of the time(50.00000000001 so you have a slight edge), if you win lets say you chop away and get another coinflip for all your chips ( you have 2500 everyone else has increased in chips).. You have a 75% chance of being illiminated by this time, and a 25% chance of having 5000 chips.
Would you rather take this where you have a 25% overall of being eliminated, or chop away and get up to 1500 in chips and THEN take a coinflip. At this point you have a 50% of being illiminated, a 50% chance of having 3000 in chips.
To clear things up lets say with the 2nd example, you go all in again for all your chips with a coinflip immediately after that hand. At this point you have a 75% overall of being eliminated sometime and a 25% chance of having 6000 chips.
Now to add in more variables, the blinds are a much more significant amount at this point. If the blinds had gotten to be up to 100/200 and the BB and SB fold, you win 3300 and then 6900, where as if you did this earlier (say the blinds are 25/50) you would go to 2075, chop away and get 2575 and then go up to 5150.
Then continue to realize that if you do take the risk early you have given yourself a 75% chance that you will never see aces again. Given that aces are next, the person who waited and folded the 50/50 hand has 100% chance of seeing aces, where as the person who did not not only only has a 50% chance of seeing this aces, but now has 1000 more chips than everyone else. The overall chip value of this player after the hand is (2000*.85)= 2850, since they only have a 50% chance of seeing this, the overall chipvalue of the series of moves is (2850*.5)=1700. The person who waited will have an overall chip value of (1000*1.85) =1700. But you must realize that the risk of illimination is much greater if you take both a coinflip and aces for all your chips. If you take the coinflip
Looks to me like the early gamble of doubling up has yielded a less positive situation than not.
Now it does get tricky…. Obviously you have to be able to maintain your chip count. Since AA comes 1/200 some hands, a player who simply folds everyhand until then will lose chips. An orbit comes every 10 hands, if blinds were an average of 15/30 during this period the person making the 2nd move would sit through about 20 orbits. If they continued to fold they would decay to 45*20=900. 1000-900 is 100.
They have a 100% chance of surviving to see these aces, but the aces would only move them up to 200 chips 85% of the time. They would be left with EV of 170.
Someone who doubles with a coinflip, and then waits 200 hands is 2000-900=1100, then moves in with aces and doubles up to 2200, the chance of all this happening is 50%*85% giving them an EV of 935 chips, but a 42.5% chance of survival
Obviously in an extreme example if you are in the money after the aces and faced with an all in the very next hand due to insane increase of blinds, you are better off folding every single hand. Looking the other way, if the payout was only the top 10 out of 2000 and the blinds went up every single hand, every hand with increasing antes as well you’d have to win multiple all ins to survive, and basically would have to consider taking average hands, and it basically would be a lottery.
Although you do gain much more chips by taking
Obviously you are passing up too many edges at this point, But what if these two courses of action would both gaurentee you in the money, but you would be illiminated. At this point the 935 chips isn’t that much greater than the 170.
For all you know you catch aces 5 times in as row when you get down to 10 times the big blind and everyone else is at 50. Perhaps there is a table with tons of fish and you manage to steal their blinds like crazy and have EV++++ situations. Maybe there are multiple EV+++ situations much higher than slightly above even money later on. If this was the case you could handle waiting for situations where you are a 60% favorite before you have to get your money in. Perhaps people are so aggressive that you can fold your way into the money. If any of these were the case, it was most certainly an unnecessary move to go all in with a 50% chance of winning.
Obviously there are situations where everyone else is so good and so much better than you, that they maintain their chips, get perfect reads, as you have virtually no EV situations, and lose chips with the blinds. There becomes a point where players are good and your chips get low and cards run bad and the EV of any move is negative and will be until you’re out of chips. If this is the case you simply have to take the lowest possible EV-, and at that point not taking the coinflip was a mistake. There may be a certain point where you can chop away at pots and everyone folds with a bet of 40% of the pot. There may be a point where everyone calls the flop and then is way to aggressive after the flop. If that’s the case, there’s no point in getting all your money in preflop if you have enough chips to see enough flops until you know you have the best hand.
The reason taking the edge early is important, Is because it allows players with more chips to put pressure on the other players… Another reason is it allows you to simply outfold all the maniacs, and then still have a decent size chip stack when you’re up against the other players, and allows you to wait long enough until you have a hand.
NOW… If your moves were all in or fold preflop on everyhand, and you were called every hand you move all in, I believe that one could make a formula based on the average rate of decay to optimize your success. This would not be to win the tormenent, but to maximize the amount of hands that you get to see, maximizing the chances that you make the money.
The formula would look something like this
Hands played=Average chance of winning each hand*total amount of chips left-average decay per rotation
You want to find the max point you can have for H
To plug this in to a turbo sit N go, at a 10/15 level of blinds the formula would be
H=1500-45X. (X is amount of hands you’ll need to see on average before seeing the selection of hands)
If the blinds remained the same, simply folding would allow you to see on average 33.3 rotations or about 333 hands.
Now if you played Aces, Kings and Queens this would mean that you would be only playing 1.4% of all hands. You would have to fold about 99 out of 100 hands, leaving you with .14 hands per rotation. Every 10 rotations ~about 1 hand. If this was the case your would lose an average of 450 before you see any of those hands, and have a total of 1050. Doubling up would bring you to 2050. Lets say on average you managed to go headsup against the range of AA-88, Aks-A9s KQ-KTs QJ-QTs AK-AJ KQ. All others folded. You would win about 74% of the time on average. Take this 74% and multiply it by 2050. You get 1517 for your average value. The problem is, although by this method in the long run your chips are increasing, if you lose just once you can’t buy back in. So given that you’re all in again, your chance of surviving 2 all ins in a row with these odds is %54.76. your chance of 3 times in a row is %40.5. So by folding, you actually will last longer than those who take this strategy about 60% of the time.
If you wanted to figure out the percentage to play exactly break even poker by going all in and being called you would have to say that
1500=2(1500-(X amounts of rotation before seeing hand*45))(*Y% of winning)
/2
750=(1500-(X rotations*45)) (Y% of winning)
the max amount of rotations before going broke is 33.3
The min amount is 1.
There are different options from 33.3 to 1. Lets figure out the % we would need to win to break even if we could play a hand that we only saw every 15 rotations (1/150)
750=(1500-(15*45))(Y%)
750=(825)(Y%)
750/825=90%
Since even aces is only about an 85% favorite there is no specific preflop hand that you could wait for.
Now lets say we want to include the top 10 hands only. I’ll go with AA-77 and Aks-Aqs. This makes up 6.3% of starting hands. We would see this about 1 time every 15.5 hands or 1.5 rotations.
750=(1500-(1.5*45))(Y%)
750=(1429)(Y%)
750/1429=52.48%
again, according to pokerstove, you would win about 55.3% of the time, so with these blinds, this would be a profitable play against even the top 10% of hands if you let every blind go.
You can play around with this until you find the optimal hands to play.
In the long run you would gain chips. Since your chance of survival is 74% every all in, this would be a very good course of action. To summarize, as long as you have anywhere from 35 to 50 times the big blind, this method would yield long term survival.
Lets say the blinds move up to 25/50.
You have 30 times the big blind, or 20 orbits that you have to survive.
To simplify things figure out it in relationship to your small blinds left.
You pay 3 small blinds everytime around
60small blinds
Now playing AA KK QQ or 1.4% of the hands your chance of winning would have to be?
1.4% is about every 7 rotations
60=2(60-(7 amounts of rotation before seeing hand*3))(*Y% of winning)
30=(60-(21))(Y% of winning)
/31=.77
your chance of winning would have to be 77% unfortunately against the top 10% of hands, you will only win 73% of the time so you have to choose to play more hands to be successful. Lets include AA-99 and AKs as well. You will see this 1 out of 33 hands or 1/3 rotations
60=2(60-(3 amounts of rotation before seeing hand*3))(*Y% of winning)
30=(60-(9))(Y% of winning)
/51=58% of winning. (actual 61%)
If you have 30times the big blind it is possible to play break even poker by only playing the top 7 hands.
It would look like this
1500-225=1275*2=2550*61%=1555.5
Now what happens when you get short stack, and you are almost certainly going to be forced all in eventually? Since you will generally be called by the top few hands, is it possible to play break even poker without stealing a blind with a random hand?
The interesting situation is that since the average decay is .3 small blinds/hand, it actually would be a better move to take an EV of 30-.3SB/60=49.5%. The more you decay, the more –EV you can take, if you had 15 SBs left, you would be able to play 49% underdogs and it’d be better than folding.
Well lets say you have 30 times the small blind (15 times big blind)
If you get down to half of that, there’s no way you can double up and break even so the minimum would be 3 rotations. At the minimum what must your chance of winning be?
30=2(30-(3 amounts of rotation before seeing hand*3))(*Y% of winning)
15=(30-(9))(Y% of winning)
/=.71
3 rotations= 30 hands 1/30 hands= top 3% of hands=AA-99 and AKs but they only yield a 61% chance against top hands, so it appears we’ve waited too long.
How about 2.1 rotations, top 21 hands top 4.7% of hands AA-TT AK-AQ (suited and unsuited)
30=2(30-(2.1 amounts of rotation before seeing hand*3))(*Y% of winning)
15=(30-(9))(Y% of winning)
/=.63.2% still just a couple percent short(60.1) about 3 off
30=2(30-(1.85 amounts of rotation before seeing hand*3))(*Y% of winning)
15=(30-(9))(Y% of winning)
/=.61.3% still just a couple percent short (actual 58) 3 off again
It looks like once you get below this point you gotta hope you get a hand earlier than expected, or move tables at the right point. You can get close to playing break even poker, but not against the tight range of hands listed. Fortunately, you may pick up an extra 3 small blinds or so from the small and BB folding, so you are not completely out, but once you get to the point of 15 big blinds there is generally no way to maintain your chips in the long run. This could be why the rule of thumb is to just go all in with a raising hand in the big blind. You may pick up the blinds and have a shot at getting above break even point if you can find a hand. I think at this point you have to either take some risks on marginal cards or just hoping they’ll fold, or take a risk by waiting and folding into the money or folding minus a double up or two. Although the double up while you still have chips is much better since if you win you’ll have much more chips, you can also realize that at some point, the longer you wait, the more likely you are to get called .
Lets try at 18 times the big blind
How about 2.1 rotations, top 21 hands top 4.7% of hands AA-TT AK-AQ (suited and unsuited)
36=2(36-(2.1 amounts of rotation before seeing hand*3))(*Y% of winning)
18=(36-(6.38))(Y% of winning)
/3?=.6077 actual 60.032% You can’t say whether or not you can play break even poker with 18XBB or less (ignoring ante). So basically the time to open up your game and look for spots to take chances to steal is at 20 times the big blind. If you go below, you’re going to have to wait until your hand. Once you get to 10 times big blind all in if you have a good shot at buying pots. Otherwise call with a lot of hands if table allows, and be ready to move if you hit flop good. Pay attention to how others play you. Check the odds if your hand is good vs your opponents. If you’re planning on making a move to double up, you have to try to call and hope to get raised. Trap some people in behind you to get those extra 2 or 3 big blinds. If you can double up and get those two, you’re back to break even poker. Calculate like this 20SB/3 SB per rotation= 6.6 times around* 10 players = about 66 hands/3=22 1/22=.045… play slightly more than the top 5% of hands at this point all in. The more chips you have the longer you can wait if you’re playing survival poker. At this point you may want more people in the pot if it’s a good hand. It depends on if they’ll fold. If you can steal you might want to just push all in. If you think you’re going to get raised and can get headsup action with a lot of dead money call then push all in if raised. Then just play it well after the flop. If it’s a very very good hand You need to just call. At this point you’re not going to have very good chances at winning unless you get the most possible value out of this hand. You can probably almost triple up if you play this multipot right.
It’s no wonder why Steve Dannemen was able to be successful by only playing the top 10 hands of poker. He may not have won the entire thing, but was able to survive and basically play break even poker. If everyone else is tight, playing tighter is an option if the blinds allow it. Sure he got lucky at times, and I’m sure he didn’t double up completely in all of his hands, and he folded a few good hands (QQ being one of them) but his method of playing allowed him to not only survive but profit in the long run against even the tight opponents unless somehow he got severely short stacked.
He likely stayed short stack most of the time, but when he did have his hand, people would be more likely to call him as he was shorter stacked and more desparate. The big blinds were much larger at this point. When he started going all in with AKs AK Aqs AJ Ats, QQ people basically had to wait for AK JJ or better to call him. And they may even have to wait longer if they think he might do that with AA and KK as well.
There also came a point when he pushed all in anytime he was raised with a broader range of hands than usual (A10 AJ AQ AK). At this point although what he was doing may have had a negative long term profit. Eventually you lose all your money, but betting money on something that happens 99% of the time usually won’t hurt you to do a few times. He was “lucky” to not run into a hand, but if he did run into a hand he had a lot of outs. This helped him, especially towards the end of the tournament when the blinds were bigger and everyone was tighter.
Top 4% of hands
60=2(60-(3 amounts of rotation before seeing hand*3))(*Y% of winning)
30=(60-(9))(Y% of winning)
/51=58% of winning. (actual 61%)
49=2(49-(2.5 *3))(Y% )
24.5=(41.5) (Y)
http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_magazine/archives/printarticle.php?a_id=12251
http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_magazine/archives/showarticle.php?a_id=14150
http://www.tightpoker.com/bluffing.html
http://casinogambling.about.com/cs/poker/a/bluffing.htm
http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_magazine/archives/showarticle.php?a_id=14805&m_id=65565
https://secure.nolimitholdemsecrets.com/ebooks/download_b.html
Hey Mike it’s Mike from Minnetonka, Minnesota here,
I just got a quick question regarding multi table tournaments.
How do you play after a table change when you first sit down at a new table? It’s difficult to play your normal game because if you raise and someone re-raises all in, you don’t know if they’re a maniac or a tight player who has a legitimate hand. To avoid this is it better to wait until you notice someone’s betting patterns, playing style, tells or something you can take advantage of, or is it better to raise a few hands early and take control of the table immediately and make the table respond to you?
Also give some examples of hands that you might play or avoid playing when you first sit down.
Thanks for the call, I’m looking forward to your insight.
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Experience certainly is a must, but the amount of experience you need can be shortened So very quickly. I’m sure you’ve heard the phrase “practice doesn’t make perfect, PERFECT PRACTICE makes Perfect”
You can take years and years and loads of cash to learn how to “practice perfect” (or play close to perfect as you can based on the information you know), or you can dramatically shorten the time that it takes to learn, and learn from someone who’s already had thousands upon thousands of multitabling hours both live and online experience.
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I see a lot of good points some people have made, but they seem to forget about a lot of key things though. Just as if in football a team could win the game without putting the ball in the air and risking a turnover they would and SHOULD, it would be foolish to risk an all in, even if you had an advantage if you knew that you were going to get a better situation.
Extreme example… deep stack tournaments with a flat blind structure for the first 10 hours. The entire tournament people limp every hand and check to the turn and push anytime they had had pair of 9s or better. Would you call every all in as a slight edge even if you could get a bigger one later? If the blinds allow for enough play, and opponents allow for something like this, you wouldn’t want to take every slight EV if you had to keep risking it all with a chance of being beat, because you would have to survive multiple all ins and your opponents might have outs. Sure other players might take advantage of this and lets say everyone also CALLS with 2 pair or better here. Well sure if you waited for the absolute nuts which lets say you could do without blinding down to half your stack, everyone would seem to “beat you” in the race for chips… But if you could wait for the nuts the entire tournament you would find yourself winning 100% of the time. what about another example, people that you are in a pot with ONLY check and call and fold…you’re the only one that can bet… Does it make ANY sense to go all in without the nuts? Not a damn bit. Does it make sense to BET some amount with a hand that has +EV but not the nuts, You bet! (although it would be a damn boring tournament)
If tournaments were full of people playing optimally based on the range of hands they put their opponents on in terms of not taking outlandish risks and everything, you should never pass up a even slight edge, however that’s not the case, there’s people going all in with suited connectors early, reasoning “if they double up they can use that stack” and playing foolishly. the fact is you can EXPECT to get much better than EV situations. The goal of a tounrmanet is to make MONEY not win, but make money… this is contingent upon #1 survival. Live to see another hand. Sure, accumulating chips so you can withstand the variance and maniacs and everything that happens as a result of high blinds is a PART of survival, but it does not necessarily REQUIRE all ins to win the game. Just for fun I played a play money 100 person tournament to see if i could win it without being all in and I DID.
Consider the following insane situation. If you knew that 1 person at every single table would go all in every single hand, and half the table would call, in a 5000 person tournament without fees if you pick up aces would it be worth it to call? Assuming the payout was say 20% to first and 15% to second, and the rest distributed deep, here’s the deal. first hand 5000 2nd 2500 1250 625 312 156 78 39 20 10 5 3 2 1… basically 14 hands not including ties and
If you KNEW this to be the case you shouldn’t even call with aces… However in any other situation you should…. The reason you shouldn’t is because you know that you can fold your way to 2nd place 100% of the time in this redonkulous situation. In a 5000 person event 20% for first would represent 1000X your buy in back. 15% for second would represent 750X your buy in.
if you fold your way to second you are outchipped by a factor of 4999… lets just say since you have to double up 14 times at this point, you probably only have about .01% chance of winning. Even if you “double your chances of winning” by doubling up, your chances are still horrible to win and don’t make a damn bit of difference as far as $EV go.
Situation 1
you win 2nd 99.99% of the time (750X) $EV 749.925X your buyin
and first .01% of the time ($EV .1X your buyin)
overall EV is 750.025X your buy in.
Situation 2
You lose 20% of the time out of the money
You finish 1st TWICE as much but still only .02% of the time.
You finish 2nd 79.98% of the time (599.95X buyin)
you finish first .02% of the time (20X buyin)
overall $EV is 619.95
Feel free to adjust this based on what 1st and 2nd pays, it could be 25% for first and 12% for second, but it would be the same.
How’s this change in a qualifying supersatellite? it AGAIN shows the relevency to play tight. In supersatellites you often have players FOLDING aces to all ins preflop and CORRECTLY so because they’re going to be able to fold themselves into the money anyways and the payout is the same(. But most of these players took a 60/40 all in EARLIER prior to getting aces, but it simply does NOT make sense to take a 60/40 if you’re going to be getting an 80/20%.
I guess it just depends on if you’re playing to WIN tournaments, or if you’re playing to WIN MONEY…
To me tournaments are more about risk management. Hypothetically if you could win an average of 1M or more per round without EVER being all in, you would win the tournament if the pots were small enough in relationship to your chipstack to survive the varience.
I don’t know, it’s certainly possible I’m wrong, and I’m not trying to avocate a weak tight game, in fact MOST of the time I play an aggro game, and like to enter in a lot of small pots because I think I can either get my opponents to fold the better hand enough for me to accumulate chips little pot at a time, or I’ll bet the flop and my opponent will call and check trying to trap me thinking I’ll be again and I’ll pick up a backdoor flusdraw, check and crack someone’s aces and have my opponent misplay the hand letting me in for cheap, and not correctly realizing that although I bet a LOT, I’m not going to move in without my opponent virtually drawing dead if I can help it. So they’ll end up giving me HUGE implied odds and I’ll have the nuts, but based on my past they’ll have to call. The whole thing is opponents misplay me so much that the EARLIER on in the tournament, the more I’m giving up by being all in. If I KNEW that on average from the beginning of the tournament I could either play hands to the river in a small pot, or chop away at small pots, or get my money in with the nuts, and obtain 10,000 chips before another all in situation. If I was in a situation on the first hand that I could somehow know that I was a 70% favorite, or was a 70% over his range of hands, then I’m gaining 1500 70% of the time, and continueing to gain 10,000 more leaving me with 13,000 at the next all in situation
OR I could NOT be all in and still end up with 11500 at the next all in situation. Well here’s the thing.
NOW an all in is say 60/40. If I take it (which I might in either situation because the edges I’ll be able to get will certainly tighten up, and an all in will probably be inevitable) In situation where I doubled up early, 60% of the time I’ll have 26000 and 40% of the time I’ll be done
On the other situation it will be the same only 60% of the time I’ll have 23000…
But you have to look at the big picture…
in situation 1 I’m out not 40% of the time, but OF the 70% of the time I make it I’m out 40% of the time, overall I have to win both so I’m out 58% of the time
Would you rather have a 42% chance of having 26000
Or a 60% of winning 23000.
Well we can put a value on it
.42*26000=10920
.6*23000=13800
Obviously there are no gaurentees, even the best player is not gaurenteed to be able to accumulate chips by chopping away and by outplaying opponents in small pots and by getting it in good. There’s a chance you get put at a very loose aggressive table where you don’t get to see a flop and you get card dead. But EVEN SO, if there’s a 70% chance of accumulating 10,000 chips then you still can take
70% of that 10,000 chips and it will be 7000 chips instead expected.
well guess what?
10,000 becomes 20,000 42% of the time (EV 8400)
8500 becomes 17,000 60% of the time. (EV 10200)
Sure maybe when you go up to 3000 you even have a greater chance of being able to accumulate that 10,000 than 70% but it’s really not that much. You have enough chips to be able to rob people blind, or get your money in good against opponents who don’t raise enough with their aces yet still are willing to call all in with them regardless of the flop.
I don’t think I can put it any clearer, people play so BAD online at the lower stakes I play, and I don’t think people understand what they’re REALLY giving up by putting themselves all in.
Everyone’s trying to single out the future aspects of the game, they’re always saying you only evaluate the situation at hand, but this disregards a LOT of things.
The best example I can show is near the bubble when you have say the TIGHTEST table in the world that you’re running over EXCEPT one maniac joins your table and is literally all in every single hand. You could wait for a hand and fold yourself into the money, but you’re missing out on OPPORTUNITY to gain so much. Your opportunity costs of waiting for a hand in THIS situation is so great If I had a chance to take him out, say I’ve watched him play and I know that EVERY single time he goes all in on the bubble. I personally rather not give someone the chance to pick him off. I know that if I call with some hand people are going to know that I’m willing to call them with any two so I can steal even more. Lets say for whatever reason the best opportunity I would have would be HIM being a 53% favorite and ME being a 47% dog. Unless we were EXTREMELY deep stacked I would be willing to call in a heartbeat before I get him a chance to accumulate more chips than me. Not only do 47% of the time I get all of his chips, but lets say 47% of the time I survive I get the blinds of everyone else’s for like 4 rotations uncontested. That’s an M of 40! (sure, it will diminish to an M of 30 when the blinds go up but still) At this point I also have to be in a position to win or at least finish top 5. Having a chip advantage over your opponents is SO much more valuable after the bubble than early. I don’t know, maybe it’s not true mathematically, but it certainly is psychologically over players, and humans are NOT perfect cardplaying computers, to assume they are is flawed logic.
I have to be able to either sit back and wait when everyone goes all in after the bubble bursts, or a situation where I can call my slight edges without risking a big portion of my chips.
It may sound ridiculous to give up edges early (or at least not play them big), but the thing is no matter HOW many +EV advantages you push to the absolute max, you’re still almost always going to end up comming across people with more chips that are either slightly better or got luckier or caught cards or a combination of all. The blinds get bigger and you simply can’t expect to not run into tables where people have you outchipped. If you’re going to end up having to survive all these all ins just to accumulate a few more chips, I dont care if you have aces, your chances of surviving, and winning just aren’t going to be very good. the big 5000 person tournaments aren’t a track meet they’re a marathon, you have to find a style that consistently gains chips with little risk if you want to expect to finish consistently deep in the money. It’s not about +EV it’s about risk management more than anything, you take every EV situation that ISN”T risking all of your chips and you’re going to be able to do VERY well and accumulate chips. You’re going to have to survive LESS double ups because you’re accumulating chips prior to the double up. Call it a “leak” for passing up a 60/40 the first hand, and taking a 53/48 later, but the pot odds are better later, the chips position is more important, and the overall expected value of taking it later (given you can steadily accumulate small pots uncontested up to a certain point) is greater, as is your chance of survival, as a result your amount of mid-late tournament experience that you get is greater as well, and your future chances of winning tournaments is better. Experience late in tournaments is invaluable, even though it’s more of a crapshoot.
ok that’s the end of my VERY long post, I’m done with this thread, I have refuted everything there is to refute. I’m happy to read any replies that say anything different and I’ll try to look at things from your perspectives, but this is the way I see it.
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