First of all, you play at a safe low stakes level.
Second of all, you play a high varience strategy.
Poker, while still having many years ahead of itself, is full of players who have already lost it all before. The poker boom has been around. Sure there’s a new boom and new players every year, but mostly, people learn that poker is a dangerous game. Now most people still have not been through mass varience, but regardless, they’re fearful. If players play too high, it is actually CORRECT for them to be conservative since it will cost them much more in the long run by taking on too much risk.
Regardless, it helps to know a near equilibrium strategy that involves pushing all in a lot.
Well, I came up with a few strategies. Yes, they are highly based off of “super system” but I did them in a way where your aim is equilibrium strategies. However, My focus is on shoving all in with sets and draws. The reasoning is that by doing this strategy, you force opponents to call you with more premium draws in order to exploit you. However, if they do that, there is still a counter adjustment.
You know that you will be moving in with a set. You hit a set roughly 12% of the time that you have a pair. If you push with a set, your average chance of winning when called might be something like 90%. it could be much better, or not nearly as good. on a 987 flop with all hearts when you have 77 it’s obviously not going to be good as often as a A27 flop with all different suits.
But if we assume your equity is 90%, we figure out how much you win. We then figure out when you move in on a draw that your chance of winning on average might be 25% (sometimes your opponent will call with a higher draw, other times you will be against a set, and sometimes you will push with a less than premium draw, and sometimes not all outs will be live). Based on these numbers and how many times the pot you shove, we calculate your equity. I assume you push for 5 times the pot. If this is the case, you can push with about twice as many drawing hands as you can without… 2.17777778 times more to be more accurate.
Now there’s an issue. You will flop a draw more often then you flop a set. 12% set, 15% draw. So that means that you should play 80% less drawing hands if you want a 1:1 ratio. We want a 2.1677778 ratio, so we must play 80% less than 2.167778. This is 1.742. So we will want to play 1.742 MORE drawing hands than pairs.
Now, if we’re raising in early position, we may decide that JJ+ and AK are hands we’re willing to rereraise with. This is significant because we don’t want to allow opponents to exploit us by reraising us. So we should raise with 4 times as many hands as JJ+, AK. That’s a total of 12% of all hands we should play.
Now we know that we will play 12% of hands. We will play AK and AKs. Now that makes up 1.2% of the hands we will play. We are left with 10.8%. These will be our drawing hands and pairs.
The equation x+1.742x=10.8 will tell us what percentage of pairs we should play. 10.8/2.742=3.93. So
3.93% of the pairs we play, 66+ makes 4.1% of all hands which is close enough. 3.93*1.74= 6.85% of drawing hands.
If we’re aiming for suited connectors we can play 45s up through KQs, we can play suited 1 gap connectors, 57s through AQs, suited 2 gap connectors 69s-AJs. That is it.
Remember we play 66+ and AKs and AK as well.
So our suited connector draw range is 66+, AK, AJs, KTs+, Q9s+, J8s+, T7s+, 96s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 45s
Total hand range=12.2% of hands. So that looks great.
Now remember, I explained the problem with this. If our opponents properly adapt and start suspecting that we push with low drawing cards, they should play high drawing cards, and call on higher draws. The solution? Push slightly less often, and do so with premium flushdraws and premium straightdraws. So we will instead adjust our hand ranges.
We will still play 66+ and AKs and not. Additionally, we will still play 6.85% of drawing hands. In this case, all suited aces, All 2 suited cards 9 or higher, and K8s and k7s. Add 66+ and AK and AKs and it’s again 12.2% of hands, which is perfectly fine.
Big flush hand range: 66+, AK, A2s+, K7s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s
Now what will happen is a flop may come T87, our opponent will call with T9 for a pair with a straight draw properly adjusting to how we were playing before, as normally we would be likely to have 56, 67, T9 ourselves, or perhaps 78 or a hand like this. However, now instead we will have J9, and out opponent will need to catch a card. Additionally our opponent may call with a flushdraw expecting us to have like a 6 high flushdraw, when we have adapted and now we are the ones with a higher flushdraw. Now if we have t9 and get a flushdraw, we have to be more cautious if we think our opponents have adapted.
Now we might occasionally slow way down in our aggressiveness and make small bets at the pot. Psychologically we want to dominate our opponents and figure out what we can get away with. If our opponents let us, we will continue to bet at the pot. If our opponents come out firing, we rarely may call looking for a backdoor draw so we can move in on the turn, or we call with a set or made hand and do the same play. We will essentially play for the small pots, by winning the big ones.
Okay, but what if you’re shorter handed? Or if the first 4 players fold. You can play more hands! So I’m not going to do all the work again. I did it once, but I made the mistake of usin the 2.1667 multiplier and not adjusting for the fact that you will flop a draw more often than a set. So it’s a “draw heavy style” to adapt, simply be less likely to push with a draw and a set, and be more likely to slow play and take free cards, as well as just make standard bets instead. This may be an interesting spot to consider just betting the pot instead of moving in with both sets and draws. If your opponent just calls, you will give up on the turn if you miss, unless you have a straight AND flushdraw, OR a set, OR you hit your card on the turn, in which case you will push all in. This will essentially be just as profitable as on the flop. It will keep your chances of winning very high when you’re called, as your straight flushdraws will give you 12-15 outs with a 24-30% chance of winning. Actually, there will be more in the pot, so making this move will be a much more reasonably sized bet. You are more likely to get called but you will have a slightly better chance of winning with your draws, and you will have a much better chance of winning with your sets, and you will be a near lock to win the hand with you flushes and straights. Also, it’s a nice gear change. If your opponents start folding to scare cards, of course you can make this play with AK.
Late position 26.4% of hands. I think 5 players on is fine
22+, At+, KQ, QJ, JT, t9
A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J7s+, T6s+, 96s+, 85s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s
that’s 26.4% of hands. We can then rereraise with 6.6% of hands.
77+, AJs+, AQ+
This is Doyle Brunson’s super system more or less. The difference is, we will be pushing near “equilibrium” and the main plan is to do so on the flop. This means that there’s nothing our opponents can do. We will expect to break even when we get called, however our opponents can’t always call. If they adapt by making really weak calls, we will have to make one more adjustment which involves playing the best preflop hands, and actually moving all in at equilibrium. We pick up so many small pots that we don’t care about getting called. We expect to break even when we get called, maybe even lose some, but we pick up so many of these pots that it adds up and more than makes up for our losses.
What’s equilibrium though? The quick way to find this is to just figure out the amount our opponent can never fold, and bet all in more than twice that frequncy with the best range of hands that it allows given the flop.
If the flop is 965 we of course would move in with any set, 78 and premium pairs. If we don’t play 78 offsuit, that doesn’t count. However, after that is where it gets fun. We have to keep in mind our opponents range of hands, and our own. Ideally we will have the same hand range, if not we could be making a huge mistake. Now if an all in is 5 times the pot, our opponent can never ever profit if he folds 6 times. He MUST call on the 6th time. this is 1/6 or 16.667% of all hands. We push twice that often, or 33.3% of hands. It HAS to be the TOP 33.333% of hands given the flop. The only way for our opponent to call with a better hand is to adjust and call only with the top 16.66677% of all hands. Additionally, as long as we still have equity in the hand (a chance of winning) when our opponent has a strong enough hand to call (which WILL happen), we can actually push MORE often than with the top 33.333% of hands, and should to reach equilibrium against opponents that either fold too often, or who play optimally. the exact number depends. Of course KNOWING whether or not you have the best 33% of hand range GIVEN your starting hands isn’t easy. It’s not the top 33% of ALL hands, it’s 1/3rd of the hands you enter the pot with. If you only play 10% of all hands, that means you will be pushing with the best 3.3% given the flop. The interesting thing is it should be the best hands in terms of the chance of it winning by the river against the optimal calling range. You would realize that on a 78A flop with 2 hearts that 9T of hearts although not a strong hand right now with ten high is worth pushing because it wins a very high percentage of the time against any calling range. 65 of hearts, 9t of hearts and JT of hearts are also strong candidates. I won’t get into all of the math to find exact equilibrium, but simply understanding where that point is, and understanding that you should push more against opponents who don’t call often enough, and push less often against opponents that call TOO often is enough to give you a pretty significant edge if you do some work in understanding your strength of hand based on the flop.
So the final adjustment is acheiving that equilibrium, which is super tricky, but you can figure it out really if you take the time and learn what you need to. Of course if you can have enough of an understanding so you move all in on the right amount of flops where your opponent can’t exploit you, and you play a solid game overall, and you occasonally mix it up and play a more “small ball” approach, you will do excellent?
If you want to play “small ball” use negreanu’s strategy. It’s essentially a different version of the “super system”. You may call with a backdoor draw when a more visable draw is available. You call with bad pot odds when you have the bluff equity to call. You call with strange draws so you can represent main draws. Sometimes you hit your draw, sometimes you don’t. Sometimes you have the hand all along. Basically this works because you are calling often enough to play passive yet prevent your opponent from bluffing you. If your opponent bets the pot, you need to call on the top 50% of all flops given your hand ranges. You may call just to bluff the turn, or fold if your opponent bets. You generally will play passive but you will mix it up and check raise, and reraise every now and then. This is Game theory with a twist. The twist is that often times calling with A9 may be in 50% of your hands, but you know that if your opponent has A8 he won’t continue and will probably fold, so you might as well call with a longshot draw and consider betting the turn if your opponent checks. This allows you to still “keep an opponent honest” while also having drawing outs, and being able to bluff more effectively. It’s more of a psychologicacl edge, however, when you do hit that longshot draw, you get paid off, your implied odds are much greater, and you can actually bluff more effectively with scare cards. Of course, you have to not bluff very often against loose players.
There’s always a way to adapt!
I love poker!
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Note, there are several other all in concepts like this that you can do. One style is a basic tight strategy where you generally only enter with 99+ and AK and AQs. You basically will push with 99 or better on the flop. You will start off shorter stacked, and raise large. If you are reraised, your opponent is essentially moving all in. You will want to adapt to your opponent, but generally you can call all in with JJ+ or AKs. These are super powerful hands. You generally are going to be moving in on a very large percentage of the flops. You are looking for the overall strength of your entire strategy, not the actual hand. So if your range of hands pushing in on the flop is strong enough you push. If the flop is QJT and you have 99, that’s still a push. You could easily have AK AQ, QQ, JJ, TT. Since the pot will probably be 8 big blinds and you will have 16 in front, your opponent is not going to be able to counter it. I would not be suprised if pushing 100% of the flops is profitable. These strategies aim more at exploiting the looseness of your opponent more so than the mistakes they make after the flop. By the time you get to the flop you will have such a large edge that you will be able to push over your opponent and there’s no way he can call. Even though your opponent with unpaired cards like AK may hit the flop 1/3rd of the time, you will not only win 2 pots when he folds and only lose 2 when he calls, but you also will gain when you have AA or KK already. Additionally if he calls with ace high you gain even more. You still may hit a set even when he hits, and when he hits and calls, you still can suck out and win the hand. If you have a clear advantage against AK, imagine what advantage you have over other hands with this style? Your opponent is actually an underdog with AK going into the hand vs your range. A very slight one. AKs is a slight favorite preflop. Even so, your opponent would be better off moving in and forcing you to either call and allow him to see all 5 cards, or fold and give up equity.
A variation of that strategy is where you loosen way up in middle and late position, but you’re still fairly tight and you start with fewer chips. You should still push more than half the flops. Starting with like 30 big blinds can also be very powerful. It allows you to still make bets and such, but if the flop and situation is right you can still push.
I have seen Mike Matusow make some brilliant plays in cash games where he reraises out of position and moves all in on the flop with KJ. As it turns out his opponent folded 88, but this was a huge mistake as his opponent could not have asked for a better flop short of flopping a set. Even if his opponent called, Mike would have outs. Additionally, Mike may play that way with aces, kings, queens, jacks. His opponent made the mistake of calling BEFORE the flop, THEN made it worse by folding AFTER. The combination of both was horrendous. You can push for reasonably sized amounts with overcards to the board. Maybe 1.5 times the pot or 2 times the pot, but you better be sure your cards are live. if you have KJ and the board is T high, and you think your opponent will fold AK and AJ (which is a reasonable assumption). you’re much better than if you have AJ as your opponent could have AT. You cannot be too wreckless or your opponents will probably adapt. just an occasional cautious play when you have a draw, and showing down your hand or even folding at some point proves to your opponent that you may not always be pushing weak hands. This is enough to convince them to be far tighter than they should, allowing you to continue to push and even push in some more marginal situations that are exploitable, but your opponents won’t know that you’re pushing so often.
I personally no longer impliment this strategy. It takes too long to wait for a hand, plus I much prefer the “super system” strategy where I sit in with 50 big blinds. It gets the table juiced up and full of action as people lose their mind and can’t be patient enough and eventually just start moving in and going crazy preflop or on the flop themselves.It’s just more fun for me. However, I certainly would consider playing this style to “switch gears”. It would be very optimal against opponents who start calling me with 67s and hitting a pair on the flop and willing to call my large overbet knowing that I may be on a draw. Additionally, if my opponents start to see me push with pairs, they will probably try to adapt, and again they would have to start calling with AK on an ace high flop. However, most opponents just do not adapt correctly, and will most definately call with top pair against my seemingly reckless style. In the long run though, they will be losing money as when I am ahead, I am ahead by much more than the 90% when I have a set as I estimated in my calculations. Additionally, when I am behind, I still have outs. When I have a pair with a flushdraw, my hand is suddenly much stronger than it would otherwise be against a different opponent..
Now I am going to teach you how to come up with your own strategy that is at equilibrium.
Whether you’re in a tournament or cash game, it’s nice to know how.
Basically you need to figure out your top hands to shove with. To start with assume your opponent has top pair. You will shove with all sets. Now you have to figure out that you will hit a flushdraw 15% of the time and a set 10% of the time. You have to figure out how often you will be shoving all in, and for how many chips. You figure out what you expect to be and you make sure that there is balance. Put yourself in your opponents shoes, you need to shove often enough where if they call they will basically break even. You win what’s in the middle when they don’t call, but when they do call you break even. That’s your edge. Your edge also comes when people call with inferior hands thinking you always have a draw when you don’t, and when your opponent think you always have a draw and folds superior hands. Your opponent will fold when they have a stronger hdraw than yours. This isn’t exactly equilibrium in the same sense of reality in that if your opponent knew your pushing range, they could exploit by calling with ace high flushdraws. You would then have to counter with pushing less with draws and more with sets and also with high pairs. The adjustment that is made depends on your opponent. There are true equilibrium strategies that are much different. To understand these, read “killl everyone” by blair rodman the sequel to “kill phil”.
I will not give you the actual math or an example of using poker stove and I will leave those who truely seek the knowledge and put in the effort to figure it out.