Now that you not only have the fundimental raising and reraising strategy down– but also a way to exploit opponents weaknesses, and play what your opponents don’t have, and can’t call– you will be able to advance without taking on significant risks. But it’s probably not going to be quite enough and you may need to take on slightly more risks as you advance on through a tournament. More importantly, you need to know your “tools” and understand that they aren’t always available.
It’s one thing to tell you to raise with certain hands, and which of those to rereraise with if you are reraised, it’s another to provide you with a strategy for how to adapt as your chip stack and your opponents chipstacks change with the rising blinds.
You will need to recognize that the reraise and the rereraise won’t always be available. Sometimes you will raise and your opponents reraise may end up getting you “pot committed” where the odds dictate you must call, even though you cannot be certain that on average you have a better hand than your opponent.
You will want to avoid getting into these situations without a big hand, so you need to pay attention to how many big blinds you have when you make your raises.
You will have to not only adjust your raise sizes, but adjust the hands that you raise with. See “throwing the jabs” for an idea of how this might work.
The idea is this…the entire philosophy of your strategy begins on being able to rereraise if you are raised to make up for what you lose by folding. BUT If you reraise and are pushed all in, they have taken that move away from you. In otherwords, you will be forced to either call all in with only a slight edge, or fold like you normally do and actually lose value in the long run and have no more equity than the strength of your hand vs theirs. But you cannot call without the right pot odds, and if you do so even if it’s profitable, it still has to be profitable enough to make up for what you lose all of the times you fold in order for it to be an overall profitable situation. Once you are pushed all in, you may have a hand where calling is profitable, but your opponent can push all in more often, and because you’ll have to give up a lot when you fold and not gain as much when you call, in the long run you will lose if you put yourself into this situation.
Unfortunately this may make you exploitable. Each situation is different, but there’s no point in having a system if it requires more thought then poker itself. There’s enough things to think about, so we’ll simplify things. Remember we are after the best simple winning system, not the perfect system. There is not a perfect formula for poker unless you can put numbers on the intangibles, but doing so still requires the skill of estimating those intangibles. So the IRC Method will be a system that allows skill, and allows you to deviate from a mechanical strategy. It is the magic wand, your you yourself still have to be the magician. It can’t make you a better magician, but it can make your magic more potent.
So how do we combat the all in move once we’ve raised and been pushed all in? Well other than calling we can’t… Which is why we should be making the all in move before they can to prevent us from getting into that situation, or not raising or reraising in the first place.
Where you’ll need to call your opponent if he should move in, due to pot odds, you’re often better off moving all in yourself. This is true whether you’re raising, reraising, or rereraising. Be careful when making the all in move though not to give your opponent too much slack to wait for a hand.In general a move in should not be more than 5-6 times the bet or about 3-4 times the pot. Ideally you want it to be 3.5-4.5 times the bet on a reraise or rereraise, enough to deny your opponent decent pot odds to call, but not so much that he can easily fold. Make sure your bet is ALWAYS putting your opponent to a difficult decision, rather than just some of the times. Even if you have a good hand, your goal is to make sure your opponent is in a difficult situation, where he’s not sure whether he should call or fold. Your hand does not matter, because you are trying to avoid being predictable. If you were to minraise only your big hands, and move all in with your worst hands your opponent would be able to adjust. That’s not a bad thing if you know when your opponent is going to adjust and can stay one step ahead of him, but that’s not something that I can easily put into a system.
We will cover hand ranges to push with in situations later, but for now the issue is setting ourselves up so we can push in on our opponent. For now just know that if you will be forced to call an all in, or at least where calling all in seems like it will be the best option with any hand you are going to raise or reraise (or rereraise), you should generally just push all in before you give your opponent the chance to.
If you have 50 big blinds, you know that if you raise 3 big blinds and someone else makes it 9, a rereraise to 27 is essentially the same as moving in besides psychological effects. But a reraise from 9 big blinds to 50 is larger than you will want. When you have a big hand, you want your loose opponents having an excuse to call when they think they have odds and when you have the lower range of your reraise hands, you’ll want your tight opponents to fold when they definately have odds. Most of the time you’d rather have your opponents fold so you can accumulate chips in an uncontested pot and live to see another hand without your life at stake… but you don’t want to move in when you have too many chips, because then there’s less value and you may be risking more than you need to even though your chance of success will be good.
Going from 9 big blinds all in to 50, is an ok size, even though ideally you may wish for either there to be more chips in the pot, or less chips at risk in front of you. The real concern is that your opponent only raises like 7 big blinds. Now your all in move is getting too big, but if you reraise to 21, you still are getting pot committed.
So even before you make the raise, to allow yourself to be reraised from 3 to 9 you need to think, “I’m an average stack or below… if I raise and someone reraises, I want my all in to be reasonable when I have an all in hand” It doesn’t matter what hand you have at the moment, if it’s a raise hand you need to treat it the same way, whether it’s a hand you actually will be moving in with or not.
So the solution would be to raise 4 big blinds. Your opponent can certainly move all in for 50 and you don’t mind folding as that’s an over push. If he bets 12 big blinds, your all in bet would be 4 times his bet. IF he elects to bet 16, your all in bet would be just over 3 times his bet. If he only bets say 9-10 big blinds, like I said, the all in for 50 is still okay, but now you have control over the situation, and it’s very difficult for your opponent to put you in the akward spot by raising small or raising big.
A quick trick in determining if a raise will be too much is to just multiply the times you need to fold by the percentage favorite you will be. You can’t know this for sure, but you can assume optimal opponents and figure out based on their range of hands, how strong your hand will be. If you have poker stove this can be done quickly, but if not, just a “best guess” is fine.
For example, If you have 50 big blinds, and are raising 4 big blinds, lets say you fold 3 times before you can call. Most likely you’ll be a decent big favorite on the 4th, but you’ll have given up 12 big blinds from folding your 4 big blinds. On the 4th however, not only will moving in gain the 12 back when you push, but even if your opponent decides to just call you’ll still probably be a favorite. But what if rather than raising 12 big blinds he pushes? you’ll still have to fold the same amount, but now you’ll have to call an all in eventually. If you wait and just call in with a rereraise hand, you’ll give up 12 big blinds. So when you call you need to make back the 12 big blinds. so your 50 big blinds plus your oponents 50 big blinds, plus the small and big blind, plus antes, makes up about 102 big blinds. From that 102, you need to win back your 50, plus the 12 you lose from folding 3 times a total of 62. That means you need to be about a 62/102 or about a 61% favorite when you call. If you fold more, you will need to make 50 plus 16 or 66 back out of the 102 in the middle or a 65%. If you instead call earlier by 1 hand, you will give up 8. 58/102 is 56.8%.
[table to be inserted] # folds=folds before calling
#folds % needed
1 52.9%
2 56.8
3 60.8
4 64.7
5 68.6
6 72.5
7 76.5
8 80.3
We know before the flop you can never expect to be more than 80% favorite, unless your opponent plays a very skewed strategy, such as when your opponent only moves in with any ace and you have aces, so this is as far as we go.
Now compare this to only raising 3 big blinds.
1 52.0%
2 54.9%
3 57.8
4 60.8
5 63.7
6 66.7
7 69.6
8 72.5
9 75.5
10 78.4
Now where you would normally only be able to fold 3 times and on the 4th have to make back 12 big blinds and need to be 61% to gain that back, you can instead raise 3 big blinds, fold 4 times and on the 5th time you need to be 61% since after 4 hands you will have only given up 12 big blinds. This shows why against “all in or fold” opponents, the propper adjustment to exploit your opponent is almost always to raise smaller.
If you have no idea if any of these are attainable, or have no idea which one is more correct, you’ll need to download pokerstove at (pokerstove.org? pokerstove.com?).
I won’t get into details of every example, but lets just run through one.
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The issue is that the more hands you fold, the more you have to gain in order to get back to even. If you fold too often, you won’t ever be able to make that back at least as a function of that system when you’re faced with opponents who have recognized this and can exploit you. That doesn’t mean it will be incorrect to fold, even if your opponents do exploit this tendency, especially if you can make that back in other ways like after the flop, or you can take advantage of your opponents eagerness to push you all in and just play fewer hands and raise less.
But for this system, we want to design it so that the “baseline” of the system is not exploitable, that way you can deviate from teh strategy where neccesary, but first you must learn this strategy and the adjustments that should be made.
SO if you have 12 big blinds, you can’t really raise without going all in. If you have 50, size your raise so that an all in makes sense if you’re faced with a reraise. But what if yo’re facing a raise and you OR your opponent haas 18 big blinds? Don’t reraise them unless you’re willing to risk all of your chips, and usually you’ll just want to move all in yourself.
In addition to this you want to to generally be able to put in moves like discussed in “throwing jabs” so if your opponent puts in a reraise, you can get him pot committed pretty easily IF you wanted to, but if he moves all in he’s going to be making a big over raise.
You are actually going to be adjusting your strategy at a few points when a rereraise will get you pot committed, but doing so might just be slightly more risk than you want, and when you can’t rereraise to push someone off of the hand. In these cases you focus more on the reraises.
We will eventually discuss calling vs raising as well, which will eventually turn out to be a big part of the IRC method as you develop your skill. For now just know that you generally want to be folding if a raise will allow your opponent to move in on you for 3-6 times your bet. You always want to be the one moving all in, not calling all in. You generally want to be putting in a bet that is less than 7% your total stack, but if possible never over 15% unless it’s all in. (Out of neccesity you might need to make a big 20% reraise but you don’t need to worry about this until later on) You should be aware of what 7% of your stack is, and when you have a large stack, you should be aware of what the average 7% of your opponents most likely to raise you is. If it’s too complicated just stick to 7% of your own stack.
Although all in and folding in these situations is often the best move, more advanced players can do more calling to keep the pot small and avoid being put all in rather then just folding or pushing more. I decided to leave calling out of the equation for now, because whether you call or not will often be dependent upon 1)your abilities over your opponents 2)the blind structure 3) the current blind levels 4) your chipstack. Fortunately the IRC Method will put all of this into consideration.
But first, in the next post you need to learn how to make the adjustments so you know if you should even get yourself into the all in or fold situations in the first place. Using this, you will know how good your hand needs to be to get all your chips in. Not only that, but once you hear about that, you will have a reference point that you can use to adapt what hands you play when your chip stack is constricted. So the next time you are in an “all in or fold” situation you know if your hand is good enough to move all in. But if it’s not that’s still not the end of the story, you will need to know whether to fold or call. All of this will be uncovered over the next few posts in this very revealing series.