Texas Hold ‘Em Poker Tournament

June 17, 2010

Poker Sit and Go Report: Playing Marginal Hands is Just like Scheduling a Reload

Filed under: General — Tags: , — Marty @ 3:24 pm

Poker Sit and Go Report: Playing Marginal Hands is Just like Scheduling a Reload
By Marty Smith 

Marginal hands in sit and go tournaments are quite simply the death of weak players. Before you begin to make the money in Sit and Go Tournaments, you need to know how to fold. Not being able to, is the single, biggest, critical mistake that MOST players make on a consistent basis. Yes, I wrote MOST players. In fact, their lack of discipline will often boost you to the money, but you need self control when it comes to tossing these hands yourself, as your opponents will go down one by one, playing the very hand that you correctly discarded.

The nature of Sit and Go Tournaments brings several key elements together that when understood and strategized, can easily build your poker bankroll by just playing these fascinating single table tournaments. These elements include an impatient player’s desire for action, an inexperienced player’s desire to limit his risk, and a semi-pro’s desire to make it to the money.

When you combine these factors with the potential of quickly multiplying your entry fee, predefined structure and playing time, and your superior knowledge of position and hand strength – you will consistently have the upper hand at every table you sit at. Read that again, please. Imagine that now – you can have an advantage at every sit and go tournament you participate. How can you pass this up?

To attain an acceptable win rate you need to start identifying hands that can get you into big trouble. By big trouble, I mean hands that can either win you a small pot, or lose you a big one. Need I remind you here, that if you lose a big pot in a fast tournament, your are offficially short stacked and hence, your options will be closing fast on you. It’s never inmpossible to come back from an early blow, but why put yourself in that predicatment? You don’t need to win the tournament in the first few hands, but you can sure lose it in the first few hands.

Here are a few of those hands I am referring to: A3s, KJos, Q9s, KQs, A9os, and QJs etc. Have you noticed a pattern here? They all look good right? However, they are not the best, and that is what can send you to the rail sooner than you like. It’s the delicate handling of greed and impatience that requires your inner strength to overcome and toss these cards more often than not. If you are an inexperienced player, you probably should never play these until you are in the money. Marginal hands lead to reload bonuses. Check out my free video series where these issues are dicussed and you can witness them in action, on real tables.

Marty Smith is webmaster of http://www.PokerSitandGoReport.com where you can sign up for a free video tutorial series. He also rates all of the Poker Calculators at http://www.PokerCalculatorReport.com

June 4, 2010

testing poker strategies

Filed under: General — MikeTheMavrick @ 10:25 pm

It is important to test poker strategies.

ad will be displayed here

The way you test it first if possible is to run mathematical equations so you can see if it’s a sound winning strategy. However strategies that are winning in cashgames may not work out quite the same in tournaments.

You can basically figure out if a strategy is winnable just by making sure it’s sound in game theory.

For example, against optimal opponents, you have to assume they will know exactly when to reraise you. So if you are going to raise, you should do so with the intention of folding 3 times (assuming you are reraised with a raise 3 times as large as your raise) and rereraising on the 4th time. That means of the hands you raise with, you should only rereraise the top 25%. This prevents your opponent from exploiting you by reraising you too much.

If you are going to raise, you should raise based on the amount of opponents left. If you start with 10 opponents and you are first to act, the average best hand will be in the top 10% of starting hands. So you should only raise with the top 10% of hands. This varies due to the fact that certain hands stand up better against a single caller, than multiple callers, but you can still estimate one or two callers and raise enough so that you will only get 1 or 2 callers. If you get called, assume they also have a top 10% hand. If you get raised, assume they have a top 5% hand.

You can do this from every hand position. For example, if everyone folds to you, and it’s you and 3 other people, assume the top 33% of hands is the best. This isn’t quite accurate because people with an ace or king in their hands are less likely to fold, and thus since more people have folded before you, it is more likely that someone has at least an ace in their hand. However, only a slight adjustment is needed.

Now that’s the mathematical way to test a strategy, and it is only preflop. After the flop you can have strategies where you move all in or fold on the flop. You can figure out how many flops you need to move all in, what range of hands your opponent will have to put you on, and what they can call with. Then you can figure ou the equity in the hand, and determine an accurate decision. This can get complicated, but certainly can be done. Given that you get called you have to assume your opponent has a stronger hand than your pushing range, or has equity in the hand. Based on his calling range, you calculate the remaining equity. This is easier to do if you have a strategy where you have either a strong draw or an extremely strong hand.

Now you can easily deviate from this strategy, and be successful, if you can anticipate how your opponents are going to play. However, that’s a dangerous strategy, because people can easily “act dumb” only to set up a playing style which you try to exploit, then they can merely turn it around and exploit you. This is more about outplaying your opponent, and becomes more of a chess match for the really advanced players, but it’s so easy to get tricked into playing a certain way that it makes sense never to deviate too much.

Another useful strategy is equilibrium all in strategies that are discussed more in detail in the book “kill everyon” the sequel to “kill phil”.

The only real reason to have to test poker strategies is in tournament situations. Tournaments are very different in that if you lose you are done, the payout is not winner take all, and you should no be risking as much to accumulate chips, unless that can significantly reduce your risk in the future. Since the blinds cost more every single round, a blindsteal is more valuable in the future, and the potsize will be much larger later on. You want to maintain a manageble chip size if possible, but not at the cost of risking your tournament life since it’s more lucrative in the later rounds.

This means betting 6 times the big blinds early, knowing that with 1500 chips at 5/10 blinds this is only 60 out of 1500 or 4% of your chipstack, but when the blinds go up higher, you will be playing at significantly higher stakes. This amount you raise should also vary based upon the action you get after the flop. In an aggressive game, you can still make a large win even at a small blind level so you actually want to keep the pot as small as possible so you can exploit the post flop decisions to the maximum.

You need to have a strong concept of the kelly criterion in poker tournaments if you really want to dominate consistently.

Testing poker strategies is difficult because the playing environment varies so much. Really, what you should be doing is tracking your chips every game you play at every blind level, and then you can start to estimate the chance of you getting to a certain point. The place when the strategies tested becomes applicable is towards the end of the tournament if you get there often enough. The problem is, this is when you are least likely to be alive so you won’t have a sample size to test.

The conclusion is, you should test strategies against advanced AI, and if possible in sit N go situations where the chipstacks are similar to what they will be late in a tournament, which is rarely the case and the payouts are rarely ever similar. You need to calculate your equity given a certain chip stack size. Then repeat at another chip stack size. And then at another. test multiple strategies, but mainly figure out what X amount of chips is worth to you given the payout structure. That way you can test from the final 3 tables on and figure out what percentage chance you have of getting to the final table. You can end the test when you get to the final table because from prior test, you can estimate your equty based on your chips remaining. Do that enough, and you can get an idea of how much it’s worth to be alive with X amount of chips with 3 tables left. You continue this until you cover every point in the game. If you play 10,000 simulated tournaments, you will have a very good concept of whether it’s worth it to risk your tournament life to double your chips or not at any given point of the tournament.

Full Tilt Poker Report: Sit and Go Strategy

Filed under: General — Tags: , , — Marty @ 10:10 pm

Full Tilt Poker Report: Sit and Go Strategy
By Marty Smith 

Sit and go tournaments (STT’s) are the best way to learn poker, advance your game, and build a bankroll online. At Full Tilt Poker however, this is even more applicable because of the blind and prize structures. If you are playing in a certain circuit as well, Full Tilt offers some of the best note taking features on your opponents, whereby this extra information will allow you to make a move with weak hole cards on occasion.

When I first sat at a Full Tilt sit and go table, I was shocked to find the blind levels raise every 5 minutes! I actually thought I had sat a turbo table in error, but when I investigated further I pleasantly discovered that the actual blinds raise in very small increments. I was used to the Party Poker scenario where blinds virtually doubled every time, putting all kinds of pressure to make a move with sub-par hole cards. Full Tilt increments go in very small raises whereby after a full hour of play the blinds are still a reasonable 150/300. With accelerated online play, that means you could have seen up to 100 hands in that hour, which is plenty of time to watch the loose players kill themselves off while you push your solid hands and remain a competitive chip stack by staying out of the action and multi-way pots.

In light of this, your strategy is to simply stay out of hands. If you are in one you should be loaded with a big pair or big slick and forcing the action, not calling it. There are other marginal hands like JJ, AQ, AJs, ATs or smaller pairs that you can call in late position hoping to flop a big hand. If you don’t and that is most likely, you absolutely need the inner strength to fold medium strength hands and draws here to any type of aggression whatsoever. Your ability to lay down hands in these tournaments, are simply what is going to win them for you.

Now, if you know your players well, and have taken notes in this game or others, you may have opportunity to make position moves. When you are late in position, that’s the time to re-raise players who may be over aggressive, maniacal, gun shy, or min-raising chumps who like to see flops. Watch for these rare spots to chip up, otherwise, stay out of the fray.

If you wait for quality hands and bet enough to get heads up against your opponent, you will place in these tournaments without risking a lot. Once you get to third place, aggression is the key here, unless your two opponents are aggressive themselves, and hopefully with each other. First or third should be your guide when 3 handed. Don’t beat yourself up by going out third with a quality hand or position push because the difference between 3rd and 2nd is marginal. You want to win an all in hand so that it puts you in a huge advantage to take first after you win.

Marty Smith is webmaster of http://www.PokerCalculatorReport.com where all the online poker calculators are tested and reviewed, including the new Holdem Indicator, Sit and Go Shark, Calculatem Pro, and Poker Spy. He is also editor of http://www.FullTILTpokerREPORT.com

December 18, 2009

Shove It All In

Filed under: General, formerly private posts — MikeTheMavrick @ 2:20 am

ad will be displayed here
Now how to you win against poker players that don’t properly manage their bankroll? How do you gain an edge against players that play too high?

First of all, you play at a safe low stakes level.

Second of all, you play a high varience strategy.

Poker, while still having many years ahead of itself, is full of players who have already lost it all before. The poker boom has been around. Sure there’s a new boom and new players every year, but mostly, people learn that poker is a dangerous game. Now most people still have not been through mass varience, but regardless, they’re fearful. If players play too high, it is actually CORRECT for them to be conservative since it will cost them much more in the long run by taking on too much risk.

Regardless, it helps to know a near equilibrium strategy that involves pushing all in a lot.

Well, I came up with a few strategies. Yes, they are highly based off of “super system” but I did them in a way where your aim is equilibrium strategies. However, My focus is on shoving all in with sets and draws. The reasoning is that by doing this strategy, you force opponents to call you with more premium draws in order to exploit you. However, if they do that, there is still a counter adjustment.

You know that you will be moving in with a set. You hit a set roughly 12% of the time that you have a pair. If you push with a set, your average chance of winning when called might be something like  90%. it could be much better, or not nearly as good. on a 987 flop with all hearts when you have 77 it’s obviously not going to be good as often as a A27 flop with all different suits.

But if we assume your equity is 90%, we figure out how much you win. We then figure out when you move in on a draw that your chance of winning on average might be 25% (sometimes your opponent will call with a higher draw, other times you will be against a set, and sometimes you will push with a less than premium draw, and sometimes not all outs will be live). Based on these numbers and how many times the pot you shove, we calculate your equity. I assume you push for 5 times the pot. If this is the case, you can push with about twice as many drawing hands as you can without… 2.17777778 times more to be more accurate.

Now there’s an issue. You will flop a draw more often then you flop a set. 12% set, 15% draw. So that means that you should play 80% less drawing hands if you want a 1:1 ratio. We want a 2.1677778 ratio, so we must play 80% less than 2.167778. This is 1.742. So we will want to play 1.742 MORE drawing hands than pairs.

Now, if we’re raising in early position, we may decide that JJ+ and AK are hands we’re willing to rereraise with. This is significant because we don’t want to allow opponents to exploit us by reraising us. So we should raise with 4 times as many hands as JJ+, AK. That’s a total of 12% of all hands we should play.

Now we know that we will play 12% of hands. We will play AK and AKs. Now that makes up 1.2% of the hands we will play. We are left with 10.8%. These will be our drawing hands and pairs.

The equation x+1.742x=10.8 will tell us what percentage of pairs we should play. 10.8/2.742=3.93. So

3.93% of the pairs we play, 66+ makes 4.1% of all hands which is close enough. 3.93*1.74= 6.85% of drawing hands.

If we’re aiming for suited connectors we can play 45s up through KQs, we can play suited 1 gap connectors, 57s through AQs, suited 2 gap connectors 69s-AJs. That is it.

Remember we play 66+ and AKs and AK as well.

So our suited connector draw range is 66+, AK, AJs, KTs+, Q9s+, J8s+, T7s+, 96s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 45s

Total hand range=12.2% of hands. So that looks great.

Now remember, I explained the problem with this. If our opponents properly adapt and start suspecting that we push with low drawing cards, they should play high drawing cards, and call on higher draws. The solution? Push slightly less often, and do so with premium flushdraws and premium straightdraws. So we will instead adjust our hand ranges.

We will still play 66+ and AKs and not. Additionally, we will still play 6.85% of drawing hands. In this case, all suited aces, All 2 suited cards 9 or higher, and K8s and k7s. Add 66+ and AK and AKs and it’s again 12.2% of hands, which is perfectly fine.

Big flush hand range: 66+, AK, A2s+, K7s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s

Now what will happen is a flop may come T87, our opponent will call with T9 for a pair with a straight draw properly adjusting to how we were playing before, as normally we would be likely to have 56, 67, T9 ourselves, or perhaps 78 or a hand like this. However, now instead we will have J9, and out opponent will need to catch a card. Additionally our opponent may call with a flushdraw expecting us to have like a 6 high flushdraw, when we have adapted and now we are the ones with a higher flushdraw. Now if we have t9 and get a flushdraw, we have to be more cautious if we think our opponents have adapted.

Now we might occasionally slow way down in our aggressiveness and make small bets at the pot. Psychologically we want to dominate our opponents and figure out what we can get away with. If our opponents let us, we will continue to bet at the pot. If our opponents come out firing, we rarely may call looking for a backdoor draw so we can move in on the turn, or we call with a set or made hand and do the same play. We will essentially play for the small pots, by winning the big ones.

Okay, but what if you’re shorter handed? Or if the first 4 players fold. You can play more hands! So I’m not going to do all the work again. I did it once, but I made the mistake of usin the 2.1667 multiplier and not adjusting for the fact that you will flop a draw more often than a set. So it’s a “draw heavy style” to adapt, simply be less likely to push with a draw and a set, and be more likely to slow play and take free cards, as well as just make standard bets instead. This may be an interesting spot to consider just betting the pot instead of moving in with both sets and draws. If your opponent just calls, you will give up on the turn if you miss, unless you have a straight AND flushdraw, OR a set, OR you hit your card on the turn, in which case you will push all in. This will essentially be just as profitable as on the flop. It will keep your chances of winning very high when you’re called, as your straight flushdraws will give you 12-15 outs with a 24-30% chance of winning. Actually, there will be more in the pot, so making this move will be a much more reasonably sized bet. You are more likely to get called but you will have a slightly better chance of winning with your draws, and you will have a much better chance of winning with your sets, and you will be a near lock to win the hand with you flushes and straights. Also, it’s a nice gear change. If your opponents start folding to scare cards, of course you can make this play with AK.

Late position 26.4% of hands. I think 5 players on is fine
22+, At+, KQ, QJ, JT, t9
A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J7s+, T6s+, 96s+, 85s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s
that’s 26.4% of hands. We can then rereraise with 6.6% of hands.
77+, AJs+, AQ+

This is Doyle Brunson’s super system more or less. The difference is, we will be pushing near “equilibrium” and the main plan is to do so on the flop. This means that there’s nothing our opponents can do. We will expect to break even when we get called, however our opponents can’t always call. If they adapt by making really weak calls, we will have to make one more adjustment which involves playing the best preflop hands, and actually moving all in at equilibrium. We pick up so many small pots that we don’t care about getting called. We expect to break even when we get called, maybe even lose some, but we pick up so many of these pots that it adds up and more than makes up for our losses.

What’s equilibrium though? The quick way to find this is to just figure out the amount our opponent can never fold, and bet all in more than twice that frequncy with the best range of hands that it allows given the flop.

If the flop is 965 we of course would move in with any set, 78 and premium pairs. If we don’t play 78 offsuit, that doesn’t count. However, after that is where it gets fun. We have to keep in mind our opponents range of hands, and our own. Ideally we will have the same hand range, if not we could be making a huge mistake. Now if an all in is 5 times the pot, our opponent can never ever profit if he folds 6 times. He MUST call on the 6th time. this is 1/6 or 16.667% of all hands. We push twice that often, or 33.3% of hands. It HAS to be the TOP 33.333% of hands given the flop. The only way for our opponent to call with a better hand is to adjust and call only with the top 16.66677% of all hands. Additionally, as long as we still have equity in the hand (a chance of winning) when our opponent has a strong enough hand to call (which WILL happen), we can actually push MORE often than with the top 33.333% of hands, and should to reach equilibrium against opponents that either fold too often, or who play optimally. the exact number depends. Of course KNOWING whether or not you have the best 33% of hand range GIVEN your starting hands isn’t easy. It’s not the top 33% of ALL hands, it’s 1/3rd of the hands you enter the pot with. If you only play 10% of all hands, that means you will be pushing with the best 3.3% given the flop. The interesting thing is it should be the best hands in terms of the chance of it winning by the river against the optimal calling range. You would realize that on a 78A flop with 2 hearts that 9T of hearts although not a strong hand right now with ten high is worth pushing because it wins a very high percentage of the time against any calling range. 65 of hearts, 9t of hearts and JT of hearts are also strong candidates. I won’t get into all of the math to find exact equilibrium, but simply understanding where that point is, and understanding that you should push more against opponents who don’t call often enough, and push less often against opponents that call TOO often is enough to give you a pretty significant edge if you do some work in understanding your strength of hand based on the flop.

So the final adjustment is acheiving that equilibrium, which is super tricky, but you can figure it out really if you take the time and learn what you need to. Of course if you can have enough of an understanding so you move all in on the right amount of flops where your opponent can’t exploit you, and you play a solid game overall, and you occasonally mix it up and play a more “small ball” approach, you will do excellent?

If you want to play “small ball” use negreanu’s strategy. It’s essentially a different version of the “super system”. You may call with a backdoor draw when a more visable draw is available. You call with bad pot odds when you have the bluff equity to call. You call with strange draws so you can represent main draws. Sometimes you hit your draw, sometimes you don’t. Sometimes you have the hand all along. Basically this works because you are calling often enough to play passive yet prevent your opponent from bluffing you. If your opponent bets the pot, you need to call on the top 50% of all flops given your hand ranges. You may call just to bluff the turn, or fold if your opponent bets. You generally will play passive but you will mix it up and check raise, and reraise every now and then. This is Game theory with a twist. The twist is that often times calling with A9 may be in 50% of your hands, but you know that if your opponent has A8 he won’t continue and will probably fold, so you might as well call with a longshot draw and consider betting the turn if your opponent checks. This allows you to still “keep an opponent honest” while also having drawing outs, and being able to bluff more effectively. It’s more of a psychologicacl edge, however, when you do hit that longshot draw, you get paid off, your implied odds are much greater, and you can actually bluff more effectively with scare cards. Of course, you have to not bluff very often against loose players.

There’s always a way to adapt!

I love poker!

=

Note, there are several other all in concepts like this that you can do. One style is a basic tight strategy where you generally only enter with 99+ and AK and AQs. You basically will push with 99 or better on the flop. You will start off shorter stacked, and raise large. If you are reraised, your opponent is essentially moving all in.  You will want to adapt to your opponent, but generally you can call all in with JJ+ or AKs. These are super powerful hands. You generally are going to be moving in on a very large percentage of the flops. You are looking for the overall strength of your entire strategy, not the actual hand. So if your range of hands pushing in on the flop is strong enough you push. If the flop is QJT and you have 99, that’s still a push. You could easily have AK AQ, QQ, JJ, TT. Since the pot will probably be 8 big blinds and you will have 16 in front, your opponent is not going to be able to counter it. I would not be suprised if pushing 100% of the flops is profitable. These strategies aim more at exploiting the looseness of your opponent more so than the mistakes they make after the flop. By the time you get to the flop you will have such a large edge that you will be able to push over your opponent and there’s no way he can call. Even though your opponent with unpaired cards like AK may hit the flop 1/3rd of the time, you will not only win 2 pots when he folds and only lose 2 when he calls, but you also will gain when you have AA or KK already. Additionally if he calls with ace high you gain even more. You still may hit a set even when he hits, and when he hits and calls, you still can suck out and win the hand. If you have a clear advantage against AK, imagine what advantage you have over other hands with this style? Your opponent is actually an underdog with AK going into the hand vs your range. A very slight one. AKs is a slight favorite preflop. Even so, your opponent would be better off moving in and forcing you to either call and allow him to see all 5 cards, or fold and give up equity.

A variation of that strategy is where you loosen way up in middle and late position, but you’re still fairly tight and you start with fewer chips. You should still push more than half the flops. Starting with like 30 big blinds can also be very powerful. It allows you to still make bets and such, but if the flop and situation is right you can still push.

I have seen Mike Matusow make some brilliant plays in cash games where he reraises out of position and moves all in on the flop with KJ. As it turns out his opponent folded 88, but this was a huge mistake as his opponent could not have asked for a better flop short of flopping a set. Even if his opponent called, Mike would have outs. Additionally, Mike may play that way with aces, kings, queens, jacks. His opponent made the mistake of calling BEFORE the flop, THEN made it worse by folding AFTER. The combination of both was horrendous. You can push for reasonably sized amounts with overcards to the board. Maybe 1.5 times the pot or 2 times the pot, but you better be sure your cards are live. if you have KJ and the board is T high, and you think your opponent will fold AK and AJ (which is a reasonable assumption). you’re much better than if you have AJ as your opponent could have AT.  You cannot be too wreckless or your opponents will probably adapt. just an occasional cautious play when you have a draw, and showing down your hand or even folding at some point proves to your opponent that you may not always be pushing weak hands. This is enough to convince them to be far tighter than they should, allowing you to continue to push and even push in some more marginal situations that are exploitable, but your opponents won’t know that you’re pushing so often.

I personally no longer impliment this strategy. It takes too long to wait for a hand, plus I much prefer the “super system” strategy where I sit in with 50 big blinds. It gets the table juiced up and full of action as people lose their mind and can’t be patient enough and eventually just start moving in and going crazy preflop or on the flop themselves.It’s just more fun for me. However, I certainly would consider playing this style to “switch gears”. It would be very optimal against opponents who start calling me with 67s and hitting a pair on the flop and willing to call my large overbet knowing that I may be on a draw. Additionally, if my opponents start to see me push with pairs, they will probably try to adapt, and again they would have to start calling with AK on an ace high flop. However, most opponents just do not adapt correctly, and will most definately call with top pair against my seemingly reckless style. In the long run though, they will be losing money as when I am ahead, I am ahead by much more than the 90% when I have a set as I estimated in my calculations. Additionally, when I am behind, I still have outs. When I have a pair with a flushdraw, my hand is suddenly much stronger than it would otherwise be against a different opponent..

Now I am going to teach you how to come up with your own strategy that is at equilibrium.

Whether you’re in a tournament or cash game, it’s nice to know how.

Basically you need to figure out your top hands to shove with. To start with assume your opponent has top pair. You will shove with all sets. Now you have to figure out that you will hit a flushdraw 15% of the time and a set 10% of the time. You have to figure out how often you will be shoving all in, and for how many chips. You figure out what you expect to be and you make sure that there is balance. Put yourself in your opponents shoes, you need to shove often enough where if they call they will basically break even. You win what’s in the middle when they don’t call, but when they do call you break even. That’s your edge. Your edge also comes when people call with inferior hands thinking you always have a draw when you don’t, and when your opponent think you always have a draw and folds superior hands. Your opponent will fold when they have a stronger hdraw than yours. This isn’t exactly equilibrium in the same sense of reality in that if your opponent knew your pushing range, they could exploit by calling with ace high flushdraws. You would then have to counter with pushing less with draws and more with sets and also with high pairs. The adjustment that is made depends on your opponent. There are true equilibrium strategies that are much different. To understand these, read “killl everyone” by blair rodman the sequel to “kill phil”.
I will not give you the actual math or an example of using poker stove and I will leave those who truely seek the knowledge and put in the effort to figure it out.

December 10, 2009

How To Break Down Blind Structure and Adapt

Filed under: General — MikeTheMavrick @ 7:32 pm

ad will be displayed here
Speed of a tournament makes a difference, however, there are still certain points of the tournament where changing gears is necceary.

How you adapt to the blind structures is important….

Now first you want to kind of just get a feel for the tournament. Assume you gain an M of 1 per rotation. What point do you get below 20 big blinds? 10 big blinds? Now you want to look at the major increases in “M” these are good spots to take advantage of your tight image, and build a tight image around that period of time.

Look at an ante to small blind ratio. This is going to be a period of time when it’s correct to defend your blind more, and correct to attack players that don’t adapt to this ratio.

You want to find a period in a tournament where the antes increase, and the overall M increases the most. This is your most aggressive period of time. Now before that you may want to build a tight image….

BUT, you can actually build a LOOSE image against aggressive restealers. The reason is, when the increase comes, now you can raise, get reraised, and put in a REREraise and take down a large pot. Now if you are just raising big blinds and not adjusting your raise sizes to the blinds, then you only care about big blind increase in that instance, however antes play some role.

 high big blind increase is a time for resteals, and most importantly isolation raises over limpers, and the big play preflop where you’re in position and you represent a big hand by going over the top of limpers. The major big blind increase means that this type of play is more valuable.

You should be able to come up with a different strategy for every blind level.

Do you steal more when folded to, do you encourage limping befor the blinds raise dramaticaly so that you can make a play over limpers? What kind of image do you build? DO you loosen up? can you afford to tighten up? Does your strategy chance as a big or small stack?

The important thing is still not to force it, however, be very aware of the situation, and LOOK to adapt to the table more aggressively if you need to. If you raise 2.5 big blinds always, then you are more vulnerable to a resteal when the antes are LOW n comparrison to the antes as you are not gaining as much on your steals and your pot odds to call a reraise aren’t as good. So adjust your raise sizes if you would like. A dramatic increase in the antes can also represent a good time period for you to open with more hands, or limp behind with more hands. Save the isolation raises for after several limpers when the blinds have increased. If your opponents play in a way where they are likely to play a “fold 5 or 6 times and reraise on the 6th or 7th to make everything back”, then there’s more reason to raise over the limpers with the antes are in as they are more likely to make a mistake by not adjusting to the extra money in the pot, however the difference is very small, so limping behind here is usually better.

Study the increases for image plays, study the ratios and cost per rotation for just adjustments that may be neccesary, and study how your chipstack relates to these increases, for plays that may be needed before you get desperate, as well as to better understand when you SHOULD be desperate, vs when its not as bad as you think…

Additionally, although you may notice that the blinds increase dramatically from one level to the next, it doesn’t neccesarily mean you hAVE to get super aggressive and make a play. In fact, if you could steal 5 times now, or 5 times in the next blind level, it’d be best to wait in terms of overall chips. The longer you can wait before taking on risk to come up with pots, the more every steal and small pot is worth. Although the chip increase may represent a HUGE increase from the level before, in 10 levels, that level will be miniscule. So if you can survive to the future levels and merely maintain your chipstack until then, and THEN go into hyper aggressive mode, through the entire course of the tournament passing up on early level steals will have a minimal impact. However, since there exists the ability to steal blinds after playing tight, you might as well wait one more round and attack the blinds after a big increase rather than before.

Also, from the contrarian perspective, you may think that it may make sense to double up and take on risks BEFORE you get to a huge increase. If you go broke, it’s not that big of a deal since that huge increase would have forced you to take on risk. On the other hand, if you amass a big stack, now you can put maximium pressure on your opponents. The risk you take the level before, may be worth it to double up and get a lot of chips so you can make several additional steals that you normally may have been unwilling to make.

Overall, your strategy makes sense to get progressively more aggressive, although it certainly is okay to have “image building” phases. Early on in the tournament you should play fairly pasive, unless you ahve a huge hand and can get the maximum  in and still be profitable. When I say maximum I actually mean the “kelly criterion” if you have the best possible hand, just move all in. If you are 80% sure you have the best hand, be willing to put maybe 60% of your chips in. This is maximum aggression, but allows maximum growth. Anything beyond the Kelly Criterion isn’t neccesarily unprofitable in the long run, however, it is less profitable, and small errors can quickly result in it being unprofitable. Additionally, the risk of ruin increases as you go beyond the Kelly. Although in cash game envorinments and other betting situations where you actually are betting a percentage of your entire bankroll, you need to leave yourself room for error, and earnings less to ensure that you at least earn something is much better than the catestrophic error of over estimating either your return or your chance of winning, which could result in you anhiliating your bankroll. Howevr, in a tournament, although you should treat a tournament as a cashgame with your entire bankroll at play and the only way you’re guarenteed anything is by cashing, in other respects, you only lose what you put into the tournament, and you will be able to live another day. In my opinion, aiming for the “full kelly” is certainly acceptible, and accepting an amount beyond that is as well. The tournament doesn’t last forever like a cash game, therefore a little varience at the expence of lower long term growth, but by gaining EV and higher upswings when you win is still acceptible, and in rare situations may actually be preferred. (turbo structures in particular) Additionally, if you know that you will have to make bet that go beyond kelly in the future, taking on risks is acceptible.

December 8, 2009

Full Tilt Poker Madness at Midnight

Filed under: General — Tags: , — Marty @ 9:56 pm

Full Tilt Poker Madness at Midnight
By Marty Smith 

The midnight madness no-limit hold’em tournament at Full Tilt Poker is one of the most consistently high turn out tournaments in the online poker world. Every night, at twelve midnight eastern standard time, you can get in this tournament for only ten bucks plus the one buck administration fee (rake). But what’s so good about it? A few things make this tournament a profitable venture including the time of day, the buy in, and the attrition rate.

The time of day is significant here because the majority of would-be participants should really be in bed sleeping and getting proper rest for work the next day. However, it is also private poker time for a lot of those same players and staying up late is just a small cost for some enjoyment and privacy. On the other hand they may be heading into this tournament with the expectation of doubling up quickly or getting out and going to bed. If they do double up then they can bear down and play solid, and hopefully make the money or substantially more. – first place in this tournament is usually over $2,000US.

At ten plus one dollar entry fee, most players at Full Tilt can afford this tournament, even some of the poorest players ever to click the all in button. And they do show up in droves here, again partially because of the time and the low buy-in and potential a potential bankroll explosion for the average low limit player. Full Tilt also encourages some if the resident professionals to participate as well, like Michael Craig, Lee Watkinson, Lynette Chan and others. That actually sells the tournament better because all amateurs want to sit beside a pro at least once.

The best part of this tournament for those who think at least somewhat strategically is the outrageous attrition rate of the participants. The paid entrants deplete so fast that after the first hour, if you survive, you will be among the remaining third of the players eagerly waiting to divide up the dead money left by high risk – low blinds players. Several nights this week the tournament started with over 1,500 entrants and by the end of the first break was between 500 and 600.

With an attrition rate that quick, playing tight has more inherent value as a style of play and strategy because the eliminated players are simply building the prize pot for the remaining contenders. I mean that is how all poker tournaments work actually, but an expeditious exit rate certainly adds to your expected value in terms of deciding which tournament to play.

Marty Smith plays at Full Tilt Poker regularly as TurtleKnife and also has a FREE poker tournament strategy video series that you can sign up for.

Three Betting in the Lower Limit Poker Tournaments

Filed under: General — Tags: , , — Marty @ 9:54 pm

Three Betting in the Lower Limit Poker Tournaments
By Marty Smith 

When you are playing no-limit poker tournaments online, you are going to come up against a variety of opponents, most of which will be unpredictable, because of their lack of knowledge and not necessarily their inherent skill level.

Your poker calculator will often alert you to such loose aggressive opponents by way of their excessive VP$IP, PFR% and AF, and it is easy to assume that most of these players are going to don’t themselves out of the tournament sooner than later. However, even in the lower limits there are players who can play this style and manage to accumulate tournament chips at a successful rate in the early stages.

Because so many of your opponents do play loose aggressive, it’s just simple math that a select few of them are going to advance in any given tournament. One of the strategies that these types of opponents often use is three betting, which is simply re-raising your raises. It gives you caution to wonder how strong your hand really is, and even though you’re playing a tight aggressive style, your opponent is completely ignoring that and often puts your tournament in jeopardy at an early stage with marginal hand. So how do you handle this strategy?

First of all, even though you suspect your opponent may not know what he’s doing, there is a chance that he actually does. So in that sense, you should look at lower in your opening race size, particularly in late position and in that way, you will have better implied odds to call their free bet with may be something like pocket pairs or suited connectors.

You should also be prepared to widen your range but not calling three bets out of position, unless you have a really good hand. This is somewhat conducive to being able to distinguish if your opponent is actually employing a strategy or playing like any other donkey.

To help preserve your stack, refrain from real raising this player. Let him build the pot until you have a superior hand, and only then on the river, should you be value betting. He will probably call, if in fact he is weak player. Just don’t get caught in a stupid bluffing war, with players like this.

Another strategy would be to actually open up your own three betting frequency, especially in position against tighter players. If you are only three betting in the range of 2% or less, then there is likely more opportunity for you to be stealing some pots. Just make sure you know who your opponents are in what they’re likely to do with your aggressive play.

Three betting is advanced play to be sure. This really means that winning poker tournaments online, in particular the – low limits, you are likely better off playing tighter than your opponents. However, in the later stages you are going to be up against some relatively aggressive players, who know how to play, when more money is on the line – so you shouldn’t be taking them lightly.

Marty Smith has video reviews of all the online poker calculators so you can see them being used before you decide which one is right for you. He also has a poker tournament strategy video series that is free poker training just for signing up.

Does it All Boil Down to Sit and Go Math Now?

Filed under: General — Tags: , — Marty @ 9:54 pm

Does it All Boil Down to Sit and Go Math Now?
By Marty Smith 

Well with so many ranked pros playing sit and go tournaments for a living now, turbos no less, there has been a movement to purely mathematical decision modules near the money and in the money. Colin Moshman brought a lot of this strategy to light in his sit and go strategy book released from two plus two last year. Even he though, pinpoints some drawbacks of using the independent chip model exclusively to make decisions. Those drawbacks may include your opponents skill and relative positions at the table in a given hand.

I think a lot of Colin Moshman’s success, and that of his readers, come from emanating his style during the high blind stages in sit and go tournaments. And yes there are equity decisions in this stage as well, but the pure aggression of it all, is what turns certain sit and go tournaments into relatively mathematical based games of chance. I mean, a lot of these guys just play turbo sit and go tournaments leading half the field orange and mzoned 20 minutes into the tournament. There just isn’t a lot of play there for bluffing or re-stealing when I bet at the flop is going to pot commit you anyhow.

There is simply more luck involved in turbo sit and go tournaments. So you can expect some high variance swings in your bankroll if you play these in the upper limits. Check some of these big-time players out on shark scope and you will see a drop of $100,000 to $200,000 is not unusual. Unless you can handle fluctuations as big as that, I would recommend you stick to sit and go tournaments under $100, and avoid turbos. This way your bankroll will build more consistently but also allow your opponents sufficient time to make those inevitable mistakes found in the lower levels.

There is caution to be taken at the bankroll building stage that may actually preclude you from playing this style of poker, and that would be the correct math for you. Not everything can be boiled down to simple math when your bankroll is considered too.

Yes, it’s good to know the numbers, it’s even better with a firm grasp of sit and go ICM. But you still have to take care of your bankroll while building that upward graph, not only an ROI percentage, but your education as well.

Marty Smith has a free sit and go strategy profiling report and videos for playing sit and go tournaments successfully. He also reviews all the online poker calculators using video in real game situations, so you can see which one is right for you before you buy.

Sit and Go Emotions

Filed under: General — Tags: , — Marty @ 9:54 pm

Sit and Go Emotions
By Marty Smith 

Some of the biggest challenges facing sit and go players while bankroll building and getting to learn the game has nothing to do about the game at all. It has everything to do with controlling your emotions at the table and not letting them inject into your decision-making. You know no limit hold them is one of the easiest games to learn, but as you have no doubt discovered it is one of the most difficult to make a profit long term.

I say that with a bit of apprehension because really with a bit of training and a lot of emotional control it’s actually easy to make consistent profit playing sit and go tournaments online. The truth of the matter is though, that the large majority of online players lose money in sit and go tournaments. If you don’t believe me, the next table you sit at queue up all of your opponents on sharks scope and see the red ink for yourself.

So if winning sit and go poker tournaments is so easy to learn, then the problem in losing money must inherently be derived from lack of emotional control.

This is truly one of the key facets to poker psychology that comes into play because it’s one of the first tests you are going to be facing while playing online day after day. It essentially requires you to continually ask yourself – “Can I compete and learn in this game while controlling my emotions?” That answer lies in your poker account. Is your cash going up or down? Are you reloading or are you using other players money? Are you making the right decisions at game critical intersects?

Lack of emotional control leads to poor decision making and invariably, costly mistakes. It doesn’t matter if you get lucky. It doesn’t matter if you suck out. It doesn’t matter if somehow you still make the money. If you press that all in button for any reason other than tactical strategy, your mistakes will become more and more glaring and more and more expensive.

Emotional control can be learned with experience, attentiveness, reflection, and a burning desire to improve. I mean have you ever seen Gus Hansen lose it at a table? Like him, and most other professional players, you must first recognize how emotions are a part of your game, and then learn to use them to your advantage.

Marty Smith has a free sit and go strategy profiling report and videos for playing sit and go tournaments successfully. He also reviews all the online poker calculators with video in real game situations, so you can see which one is right for you before you buy.

Would Gus Hansen Bluff in an Online Sit and Go Tournament?

Filed under: General — Tags: , — Marty @ 9:54 pm

Would Gus Hansen Bluff in an Online Sit and Go Tournament?
By Marty Smith 

You may know from my previous articles that I am not a proponent of bluffing in online poker games, especially in the lower limits. However, I have never stated that bluffing is wrong, only that it requires a high level of skill, timing, and exceptional opponent profiling.

There is a vast difference in the styles of games played from limit to hi limit to turbo sit and go styles, that should make you think twice about bluffing because if done with out due thought process you are likely to get caught and as we all know one single pot can make a huge difference in the outcome of the whole tournament.

There are many players simply immune to bluffing, and will call you even if it doesn’t make sense to you that they called. For instance you may be moving up the level to say like 10,20 even $50 sit and go tournaments and find that players at that level called just as much as they do at the one and two dollars sit and go tournaments. While a lot of that has to do with the math of the game. You have to remember that a lot of those $50 sit and go players are multi-tabling, and have no time whatsoever for your bluffing plays. They will simply look at the situation as a mathematical equation to determine if you have it or not – at least on a long term basis. That’s how they make their money.

To that end I would completely avoid blatant bluffing in turbos, with hole cards that give you no chance to win if you do get called. You at least have to limit yourself to semi-bluffing when your opponents are skilled math players. You will know if they are if they are multi-tabling while playing at your table as well.

In saying that I do find the best opportunities for bluffing are against tag players in the low to middle levels of sit and go tables, such as the $5, $10, and $20 tournaments. If you aren’t using a poker calculator to determine if they are attacked player then I recommend you use a service like sharkscope to help you to that end. The tags usually have a steady uphill graph of consistent, decent profits. Tags will also try and take betting away from you, and the best way to get beyond that and don’t play them is to put them to a decision for their whole tournament in particular when they have a lot to lose and they haven’t yet reached the money.

Another time there is a good opportunity for sit and go bluffing is when you have a monster stack and the tournament is one off the money with four or three players left depending on the size of your table. If you get a player raising in to you and are holding cards with potential like suited connectors, paint cards, Ax of Kx suited, that could also be a great opportunity to win a sizable pot and get a cautious player to fold the better hand.

Marty Smith has a free sit and go strategy profiling report and videos for playing sit and go tournaments successfully. Gus Hansen plays on Full Tilt Poker under his real name and you can find him there playing at the highest limits.

 

 

Older Posts »

Powered by WordPress